Anti-incumbency stares BJP in face in poll-bound states
New Delhi: After its failure to form government in Karnataka, the BJP leadership is now focussing on the three poll-bound states-Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where the party seemed to be hit by a major anti-incumbency wave. The party seemed to be worried following results of a ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey conducted by a news channel on Thursday which claimed that the BJP “appears to be on the downfall in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh in terms of vote share.” More importantly, it is electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh, which would see the BJP losing the most with the survey suggesting that SP- BSP alliance is likely to get 46 per cent (a gain of 4 per cent) while NDA will get 35 percent (loss of 8 per cent) in the next year’s Lok Sabha poll. Gujarat could witness a surge in Congress’s popularity, it said.
It further stated that in Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is likely to get 44 per cent vote share and the BJP 39 per cent if elections to the 200-member assembly were to be held today. While claiming that “in Rajasthan the Congress is just 5 per cent ahead of the BJP in terms of vote share,” in Bihar, “the BJP would get 60 per cent of the vote share while the UPA would end up with just 34 per cent.” Region wise, the survey has put the NDA vote share at 39 per cent, UPA’s at 21 per cent and others at 40 per cent. The NDA is likely to win 90 out of 151 seats in the region while the UPA tally is at 25. Others parties will get 36 seats. States like Gujarat would see a surge in support for the Congress. In May 2017, NDA had led UPA by 24 percentage points. In Maharashtra, the NDA would continue to lead with a voteshare of 48 per cent while the UPA will be at 40 and others at 21 per cent.
The survey states the NDA will continue to lead in eastern India and if Lok Sabha elections are held today, the ruling alliance will likely get 86-94 out of 142 seats. UPA will get 22-26 and others will get 26-30 seats. In 2014, NDA had won 58 seats in this region, UPA 21 and Others 63. In West Bengal, TMC is likely to get 44 per cent vote share, BJP 24 percent, Left parties 17 percent and the Congress 11 per cent. In Rajasthan, the Congress is likely to make a huge gain by bagging 44 per cent vote share while the BJP will get 39 per cent and the others 17 per cent. In 2013, the BJP had 45 percent vote and the Congress, 33 per cent.