Bengaluru: With three weeks to go to poll day on May 12, a JAIN-Lokniti CSDS pre-poll survey conducted in mid-April 2018, shows the electorate in Karnataka more or less evenly divided between the Congress and the BJP, with the Congress projected as facing a startling drop from 122 seats down to 85-91, and the BJP which had won 40 seats in 2013, just ahead with 89-95 seats.
The election results will be announced on May 15. The third political player, the JD(S) is shown as having secured less than the 40 votes they secured in 2013, garnering seats in the 32-38 range.
There’s a mere two percentage point difference between the Congress and the BJP's vote share. As compared to the 2013 state polls, while the Congress vote share has remained unchanged, the rise in the BJP’s vote percentage as compared to 2013 is due to the consolidation of the votes that in 2013, was polled separately by the BJP and its two splinter parties, the Karnataka Janatha Paksha and the BSR Congress. The amalgamation of that vote by the united BJP is a three percentage points rise in vote share this time around. The JD(S) vote share remains more or less where it was in 2013. The real battle in Karnataka appears to be in the six regions of the state.
While the Congress has an upper hand in the Hyderabad Karnataka and Central Karnataka regions as of now, the BJP is way ahead of its rivals in Mumbai-Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka.
