By Invitation: Modi rediscovers NDA but opposition alliances in disarray
With the campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections picking up, the spotlight of attention appears to be on the two opposing national narratives that are competing for public attention and endorsement. The BJP’s Idea of India with its focus on nationalism, patriotism, security and leadership is being confronted by an alternative narrative that seeks to shift the attention to the fives years of BJP rule - an audit of the fulfilment of the promises made by the ruling party which helped it win a majority in 2014.
It is clear that there will be no uniform response to the competing narratives across the country. The context of the politics of each state will be a critical factor in shaping the citizen response to the two narratives. This column, would like to focus attention on an equally important and linked factor which is likely to be the true flavour of this election season. The nature and politics of alliances which both the BJP and it’s opponents are aiming to stitch together in the run up to the elections will be critical in deciding the electoral trends this time around.
After having virtually treated the NDA as a belated afterthought for the five years it has been in power, the BJP has realised that in order to return to power, it needs to get its coalition arithmetic right. Besides, minor adjustment with state based parties in a few states of the North East, there are four crucial state level alliances that the BJP has forged. Each of these alliances is governed by a different logic and political-electoral calculation.
The BJP has, at least for this election, preferred to place on the back burner, the bitter exchanges over the last four years with its oldest ally, the Shiv Sena. Given that Maharashtra sends the second largest state contingent to the Lok Sabha, it was vital that the BJP made peace with its upset ally. The BJP clearly had to appease a recalcitrant ally to ensure that there was no vote split in this politically vital state. It would be interesting to see how well, the BJP and Shiv Sena collaborate at the ground level and ensure the transfer of votes to their partner. The mutual bickering is not really a thing of the past as after Manohar Parrikar's demise the Shiv Sena was quick to criticize the BJP for what it terms as the 'undue haste' in swearing in a new Chief Minister.
It was interesting to see the BJP spokesperson JP Nadda, holding back from announcing the parties candidates from Bihar and instead saying that the list would be jointly announced by the NDA coalition leaders in Patna. The compulsions of coalition have forced the BJP to contest less seats this time than what it won in 2014. This clearly shows how critical it was for the BJP to keep the JDU and the LJP on board. A sacrifice of a few seats was worth the political costs for the BJP to ensure a good performance in 2019.
Down South, a crucial NDA partner in 2014, the TDP had bid goodbye and turned into a bitter rival. The BJP stitched together an alliance with the AIADMK, PMK and MDMK in Tamil Nadu to challenge the formidable DMK-Congress alliance. The Tamil Nadu alliance is an interesting gamble for the BJP as many would argue that the only direction an AIADMK without Jayalalitha, can head seems to be downwords. This was an alliance which the BJP delayed till the last moment, as it was assessing the ground situation. With Rajnikanth refusing to bite the electoral bullet, the BJP was left with limited options. Given that the BJP had just one MP from Tamil Nadu, the logic of an electoral tie-up could well have been that there was a low baseline from where the alliance began!
The BJP-Akali Dal alliance in Punjab is clearly an agreement of mutual convenience. The BJP is clearly a junior partner in the alliance and the Akali Dal does not appear to have recovered from the Assembly election drubbing. There clearly is not much of an expectation of any major electoral dividend for the alliance in Punjab.
THE OPPOSITION
Forging alliances also seem to be central focus of the parties opposed to the BJP. The SP-BSP alliance in UP, seems to have dramatically altered the structure of the political competition in UP. This state had been critical in 2014, in helping the BJP securing a majority. This time around too, the route to power at Delhi is via Lucknow. While the state is all set to witness a three cornered fight as the Congress is going it alone, the SP-BSP alliance poses a formidable challenge to the BJP to repeat it's 2014 performance.
Central to the discussion of alliance politics is the stand and position of the Congress party. While it had managed to tie up with the RJD and its other allies in Bihar, with the National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir, the NCP in Maharashtra, the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the JD(S) in Karnataka it has been unable to break bread with the AAP in Delhi, Left parties in West Bengal and the TDP in Andhra Pradesh. The alliance in Karnataka and Maharashtra has faced several challenges. Like the BJP's alliances, the unity on the ground and vote transfer among the Congress and its allies will be closely watched.
In its attempt to forge an anti-BJP alliance, the Congress finds itself in a bind. In it's negotiations with State based parties and other parties opposed to the BJP especially in Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh it is unable to strike a balance between building a united Opposition to the BJP and retaining its identity.
At the end of the day, this election will be on the comparative success of the two alliances at the ground level. This election is not just a perception battle on the alternative Ideas of India but on the strength and unity within each of the alliances.
(Sandeep Shastri is Pro Vice Chancellor, JAIN - a deemed to be university )
