Chennai: A recent study published in Lancet states that around 9.8 crores of Indians may have type 2 diabetes by 2030. The study found that the rise in the number of people affected by the disease is likely to rise by around 20 per cent over the people affected currently.
The study aimed at comparing alternative projections for and consequences of insulin use worldwide under varying treatment algorithms and degrees of insulin access revealed that access to insulin in many areas is low. Theresearchers developed a micro-simulation of type 2 diabetes burden from 2018 to 2030 across 221 countries using data from the International Diabetes Federation for prevalence projections and from 14 cohort (group of people with shared characteristics) studies representing more than 60 percent of the global type 2 diabetes population for haemoglobin, treatment, and bodyweight data.
The findings suggested that the need of insulin will be highest in 2030 and will remain inaccessible to around 4 crore adults with type 2 diabetes if the access remains at current levels.
The likely rise in the number of adults from 40.6 crore in 2018 to 50.11 crore in 2030, with highest number of adults with type 2 diabetes from China with 13 crore, India with 9.8 crore and the US with 3.2 crore.
On this basis, insulin use is estimated to increase from 51.6 crore per year in 2018 to63.37 crore per year in 2030. Disability adjusted life years (DALY) averted would increase by 14·9 percent with access to newer oral antihyperglycaemic drugs.
It was concluded that the amount of insulin needed to effectively treat type 2 diabetes will rise by more than 20 percent globally. More DALYs might be averted if haemoglobin targets are higher for older adults.
