HYDERABAD: The impact of climate change on India, along with similar impacts on 10 other countries, four of these in South Asia, could result in an increase of risks to American national security interests, a report prepared by the US intelligence community has said.
These risks, the US National Intelligence Council said “will increase as countries respond to the intensifying physical effects of climate change.”
Placing India, along with China, at the centre of such climate change-induced security risks to the US, the report said “China and India will play critical roles in determining the trajectory of temperature rise.”
It further said geopolitical tensions are likely to grow as countries increasingly argue about how to accelerate the reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions. While China has not been clear in its commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions, India, the US intelligence report said “almost certainly will increase its emissions as it develops economically. Indian officials have not committed to a net-zero target date and have instead called on countries with larger economies to reduce emissions.”
The first of its kind report, the “National Intelligence Estimate - Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040”, also points to possible transboundary tensions for India with Pakistan over what it called ‘water insecurities’. Pakistan, the report said, “relies on downstream surface water from heavily glacier-fed rivers originating in India for much of its irrigation,” and also relies on Indian data on river discharges to provide flood warnings in that country.
In other references to India, the report points to possible large human migration from Bangladesh into India as coastal flooding increases due to rising sea levels.
The countries whose conditions change as a consequence of climate change that the US should consider as possible security concerns are Afghanistan, Burma, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia and Iraq.
