There are strong indications for a warmer summer this year even though the sun continues to be in a pacific stage due to the phenomenon called solar minimum.
The major factors affecting the summer are solar output, sea surface temperature and the changes in oceanic currents near the subcontinent. Solar minimum is the period of reduced solar activity in the 11- year cycle of the sun.
The extreme magnetic field areas called sunspots and emission of solar mass through eruptions called solar flares are very less during this period. This affects the temperature of the globe and results in excessive precipitation and allied climactic events. This phase of the sun is persisting now and it may reduce the extreme nature of the summer which is characterised by heat waves.
However, the manmade changes of the landmass may neutralise the effect of the cool phase of the sun. The anomalous heating of the land mass due to the destruction of vegetation indiscriminately and due to the drying up of the water bodies owing to various reasons have affected the temperature of the land mass and the sea surface which remains on higher than average now.
The nights are warmer than earlier. The difference between the daily high and low of the temperature recorded in various centres has reduced considerably.
The effect of the summer will be on the higher side due to the reduction in sea breeze. This air movement owes to the difference in temperature between the land and the sea. The sea continues to be on the warmer side since the specific heat capacity of water is high. Moreover, there is another phenomenon called the heat island effect which results in higher temperature than the surroundings in the areas where there are more high-rise buildings and concrete structures.
The reduced activity of the sun has resulted in the increase of the flux of cosmic rays from the galactic and extra galactic sources. This may result in above-normal cloud cover which may in turn affect the weather pattern in a positive way. The solar minimum is characterised by reduced magnetic field of the sun and allows the cosmic rays to reach the upper atmosphere more than average quantity.
The rise in the sea surface temperature of the Pacific which is termed as El Nino has not appeared so far. Earlier it was hypothesised that there is at least 70 per cent chance of it appearing in the beginning of this year. But still it is a no show, so it offers a relief for us. El Nino phenomenon affects the Indian summer adversely and reduces the quantity of monsoon rains in the state. Still it is in a neutral phase indicating a normal summer and a normal monsoon this year. The effect of the sun is aggravated which results in warmer areas due to the ever increasing construction activities, destruction of greenery, roads and higher density of population. The surface air is warmer than usual. This is due to the reduced movement of air arising from the reduction of breeze both land breeze and sea breeze. The warming of the land mass affects the Arabian sea surface temperature. There is the fad of assigning the rising heat to the global warming phenomenon. Global warming is not the reason behind the anomalous warming in the state. Global warming is the rise in average temperature of the globe due to a number of reasons; foremost being the changes in the atmospheric composition. The present situation may aggravate by the second week of March and may continue for several weeks. Summer rains may bring in some reduction in the heat.
It is not advisable to move in the sun without protective clothing from 11 am to 3.30 pm. UV protective glasses may be used while driving. The warmer surface conditions and the effect of the sun may result in sun burn and sun strokes. Sun stroke is the sudden collapse of a person due to severe dehydration and the rise in body temperature. Medical assistance is necessary for recovery otherwise it is fatal.
The winged visitors around your house may be deprived of fresh drinking water due to the drying up of water sources. Keeping fresh water in earthen pots in the open terrace and around the house in two three places may quench the thirst of the poor beings.
