KOCHI: Uncertainty looms large over Kerala with regard to the progress of southwest monsoon as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and other agencies have given conflicting signals.
While the IMD predicts that monsoon will gather strength in the state within three-four days, scientists outside the spectrum say that the current low pressure in the Bay of Bengal does not have a strong circulation bec-ause of which less than average rainfall will occur, especially after June 25.
“In the next few days, the rain will be mostly in north Kerala. In south and central Kerala, there will be less rain. We expected good rain all over Kerala from June 19 due to the formation of the low pressure in the Bay of Bengal, but since its circulation is not strong and did not intensify enough, rains are not happening now,” said a scientist in Kochi, who preferred not to be named.
However, IMD director-in-charge P.K. Mini said that the monsoon advances through formation of low pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal one after another. “The present one has formed in the north-east area of Bay of Bengal and due to its impact, Kerala will get good rains within three-four days. The monsoon reaches the active phase due to the formation of the subsequent low-pressure areas and monsoon trough oscillation and we expect formation of more low-pressure areas in the coming weeks,” said Ms Mini.
However, the city-based weatherman says that there are no indications of further formation of low pressures in the near future. He said that the model forecasts also do not look favourable for rains. The progress of monsoon to North India is presently hindered due to the presence of anticyclone wave over North India, he added
“The active phase of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is moving towards Western Pacific region and that may trigger typhoon activity in central Pacific, which will pull moisture from Indian Ocean and is not good for monsoon rain,” said the scientist adding the south Indian Ocean is abnormally warm now because of which there is reduced monsoon activity. He said that the fresh low pressure system is expected in the Bay of Bengal only in the first week of July and due to its impact further progress of the monsoon towards North India will take place.