Kochi: The much vaunted cosmopolitanism of Kochi takes a backseat at the time of election times. The electoral calculus in Kochi, like many other places in the state and the country, will come down to the caste, community and religion of the nearly 12 million inhabitants of the city. The election managers of the mainstream contestants on the fray will readily concede that these primordial affinities in the form of caste, community and religion are much more in handy in shaping the logic of electoral preferences than the veneer of cosmopolitanism.
Ernakulam Parliamentary constituency, known as a UDF citadel, has already attained the status of star contest with the CPM making a determined effort to win the seat by putting up P Rajeev, their best choice as the candidate. The Congress, not to be outdone, has sacrificed the sitting MP K.V. Thomas and chose Hibi Eden, the sitting MLA from Ernakulam. The BJP has entered the fray with the promise of a Union minister in Alphonse Kannathanam as they are sure for a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The common refrain in the constituency is that if sitting Prof. Thomas was the UDF candidate, victory would have been on Mr Rajeev's side given the development work he undertook in Ernakulam as a Rajya Sabha member. Moreover, Congress workers too were not in wholehearted mood to work for Prof Thomas who seemed to have ignored them. The selection of Mr Eden as the UDF candidate, according to Congress poll managers, has changed the advantage enjoyed by Mr Rajeev. Mr Eden's development and other works including the post-flood reconstruction works as MLA in Ernakulam in his seven-and-a-half year stint make him equally formidable on the electoral scene.
Both fronts are on an overdrive in the campaign front fighting for each inch of space. Among the seven Assembly constituencies that make the Lok Sabha seat, UDF has clear advantage in Thrikkakara and Ernakulam while the LDF claims it has an upper hand at Kochi and Vypeen. However, UDF camp is quite optimistic about Kochi and Paravoor, too. They feel that last time Kochi was lost on a slender margin due to Congress infighting and the dominance of Christian, especially Latin Catholic community and the response to Mr Eden's campaign in the area make it their fort. LDF camp says that Paravoor may be held now by the Congress but the LDF, too, has a ready claim over it, thanks to its red past. The LDF has an edge in Tripunithura but this cannot be said about Vypeen especially due to the major presence of Latin Catholics. The UDF is trying to drive home the point that the short shrift given to MLA S. Sarma in government formation may have an impact on the LDF's electoral prospects.
Which way the Muslim vote will go is also a big question in this election. The UDF and the LDF are banking hopes on this segment and Kalama ssery, which has sizeable Muslim population, keeps the fronts guessing. The 50,000 votes Aam Aadmi Party secured in last elections is a major point of debate in this election as Prof. Thomas' margin over a political lightweight Christy Fernandez was 87,047 votes and LDF hopes that votes scored by the AAP will come in its favour. They also hope NDA candidate Alphons Kannanthanam will secure a section of Christian votes especially with the help of a section disgruntled with the denial of seat to Prof. Thomas. However, UDF scotches these and hopes for a two lakh plus Latin vote consolidation coupled with support from other UDF vote bases to enable Mr Eden to romp home.
