New Delhi: Southwest monsoon is likely to be “near normal” this year with possibility of a “good distribution” of rainfall across the country, the weatherman said on Tuesday, news that would bring cheer to farmers in parched areas.
Amid ceaseless reports of incidents of farmer suicides due to crop loss and indebtedness, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) director general K.J. Ramesh said the news will be good for the farming community and the overall economy. Fifty-five per cent of Indian agriculture is dependent on rainfall.
El Nino is expected to occur in August-September, but it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon, and the weatherman expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a strong influence on rainfall in the country.
Skymet predicts less than normal rainfall
A strong El Nino phenomenon causes sea temperatures to rise significantly, and has adverse effects on marine and aquatic life, agriculture and the quality of water supplies.
“The country will receive 96 per cent of Long Period Average with an error model of plus or minus 5 per cent,” Ramesh said, while releasing the monsoon forecast.
Anything between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered “normal”, while under 96 per cent rainfall is categorised as “below normal”.
Interestingly, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, has predicted a “below normal rainfall” this year, with western India likely to experience a shortfall.
The IMD has not issued a region wise forecast yet. Ramesh said it will make a more detailed prediction in its second forecast in June. However, rainfall may be somewhat deficient in the northeast and parts of south India.
2016 witnessed normal rainfall across the country, barring deficient precipitation in states like Karna-taka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and the northeastern states.
