CHENNAI: The RK Nagar bypoll on April 12 will be the first test of popularity for the AIADMK after the demise of former Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa, the conviction of party general secretary V.K. Sasikala and the revolt of three-time chief minister, O. Panneerselvam. It is also the first bypoll for the DMK after MK Stalin took over as the working president and the party is aiming at a crushing victory to prove that the AIADMK government under chief minister Edappadi K. Palanisami has no mandate to govern the state.
Although Chennai is considered DMK's stronghold, RK Nagar is one seat won by the AIADMK in the first Assembly elections it faced in 1977. Besides, the party has won the seat in 1991, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 and Congress as its ally in 1984. The DMK had won the seat only twice — in 1989 and 1996. The constituency dominated by the poor and middle classes with a large chunk of daily wage workers is expected to see a big change this time as the AIADMK is without charismatic leaders like MGR or Jayalalithaa and facing revolt from Panneerselvam. Although, Palanisami had won the trust vote with the support of 122 MLAs, there is an overwhelming perception that the AIADMK government is facing popular resentment.
The DMK may have lost the seat seven times, but it has consistently shown a vote base of about 33 per cent, which could be sufficient for it to win the bypoll, as the votes of AIADMK may face severe erosion and split. If the DMK managed to draw the support of swing voters and increases its vote share, the party is expected to score a thumping victory. Besides, other parties like the BJP, PWF, PMK, DMDK and MDMK, who were marginalised in state politics due to the polarisation of votes between the AIADMK and DMK have a chance to test their strength and emerge as a viable alternative, at a time when the AIADMK looks vulnerable.
The bypoll would be crucial for the future of Panneerselvam's team which is challenging the Sasikala-headed party since this is the first opportunity for Panneerselvam to show that he has a mass base. However, he may not like the splitting of anti-Sasikala votes between him and Deepa, who had announced two weeks ago that she would enter the race from RK Nagar. Former minister E. Madhusudanan who was nominated by Jayalalithaa faction of the AIADMK in 1989 got over 25 per cent votes and he won the next elections in 1991. Although, he knows the seat like the palm of his hand, he is considered too old to carry the campaign burden.
