Hyderabad: The traditional method of weather forecasting, where weathermen looked to the skies for signs of rain, was probably more accurate than the predictions made by the Indian Metrological Department (IMD) based on weather models.
In April this year, the IMD predicted that the country-wide monsoon mean could be 95 per cent.
Two months later, that figure was updated to 98 per cent. The actual monsoon mean recorded is five per cent lower than the figure predicted.
The predictions made for the two Telugu states were also incorrect. As on September 30, which is considered to be the official deadline for the monsoon, AP received 15 per cent more than the amount of rain predicted, while Telangana received 13 per cent less.
K.J. Ramesh, the Director-General of the IMD, when asked about the deviations from the predictions, explained, “There is not much difference from the IMD predictions. The announced figures were met in most states, except a few such as Madhya Pradesh. Predictions are hampered by global warming; there has been a change in the rainfall pattern too. The number of rainy days in the season has decreased, while there has been an increase in the occurrence of flash storms with high rainfall in a short duration. This is likely to continue.”
The DG added that the distribution of rainfall this year had been optimal for agriculture.
“In 2017, 6 lakh hectares less were sown. 87 percent of all reservoirs reached their total capacity in 2016, while this year the figure is 4-5 percent less, which is not very significant. There is not much difference in the predicted and received figures,” he said.
