Vijayawada: The Boston Consulting Group has primarily focussed on projecting the failure of greenfield capital cities across the globe, apparently to justify Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s decision to shun Amaravati and move over to Visakhapatnam.
The BCG additionally focused on the development of Rayalaseema, along with Prakasam and Nellore districts, again a strategic move to help the YSRC government preempt the demand for Kurnool as a full-fledged capital in the short term, or a greater Rayalaseema state in the long run.
The consultant studied the progress of 30 greenfield capitals and concluded that except for Shenzhen and Navi Mumbai, all others including Putrajaya of Malaysia have failed to achieve the projected growth, even two decades after grounding. These greenfield cities are located in developed countries like South Korea and Malaysia, besides Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Nigeria. The greenfield city in South Korea achieved 30 per cent of the projected growth and Malaysia 20 per cent, the report said.
On the viability of Amaravati, the BCG seems to have used the vision of former chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu to build its failure theory. The report notes that Rs 1 lakh crore was required to build Amaravati, as estimated by the TD government, whereas the state, already burdened by a debt of Rs 2.25 lakh crore, would not be in a position to bear the additional backbreaking investment.
The BCG discarded the self-financing model projected by Mr Naidu in support of his claim that the government need not spend a rupee for development of Amaravati. The BCG concluded that even if the model clicks, it would take a decade whereas the government would have to continue to do debt servicing of Rs 8,000 crore to Rs 10,000 crore each year.
The Amaravati model’s failure to reach even its initial projections was highlighted by the BCG. The white paper released by Mr Naidu had projected that the population of Amaravati would jump to three lakh in first three years but in reality, had stagnated at 1.2 lakh, the report said.
