China Supplying Nuke WMD to Pak, India Stepping Up Its Military Prowess: Report

Talking in general about South Asia, the report said that terrorist activity in Afghanistan and Pakistan will challenge military and security forces, and ongoing tensions along India and China’s Line of Actual Control border demarcation are capable of escalating quickly.

“India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more an ancillary security problem to be managed, despite cross-border attacks in mid-May by both India’s and Pakistan’s militaries,” said the report.

The US Defence Intelligence believes that India will certainly continue promoting its “Made in India” initiative this year to build its domestic defense industry, mitigate supply chain concerns, and modernize its military. “India continued to modernize its military in 2024, conducting a test of the nuclear-capable developmental Agni-I Prime MRBM and the Agni-V multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle while also commissioning its second nuclear-powered submarine to strengthen its nuclear triad and bolster its ability to deter adversaries,” the report said.

The report mentioned the terror attack on Pahalgam and India’s counter-terror action on Pakistan under “Operation Sindoor.” It further said that to counter Chinese influence and boost its global leadership role, India is giving priority to advancing its bilateral defense partnerships in the Indian Ocean region through exercises, training, arms sales, and information sharing.

“India also has increased trilateral engagement in the Indo-Pacific region and actively participates in multilateral fora such as the Quadrilateral, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and ASEAN,” the report said. It also mentioned the agreement between India and China in October 2024 to move forces away from the two remaining contested positions along the disputed Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh.

The report observed that though the disengagement at LAC did not resolve the longstanding dispute about border demarcation but reduced some tension still lingering from a 2020 incident when troops on both sides were killed in a clash along the LAC.

The US observes that India will maintain its relationship with Russia through 2025 because it views its ties to Russia as important for achieving its economic and defense objectives and sees value in the relationship as a means to offset deepening Russia-China relations.

“Under Modi, India has reduced its procurement of Russian-origin military equipment but still relies on Russian spare parts to maintain and sustain its large inventory of Russian-origin tanks and fighter aircraft that form the backbone of its military’s ability to counter perceived threats from China and Pakistan,” the report observed.

With regard to Pakistan, the report said that during the next year, the Pak military’s top priorities are likely to remain cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbours like India, Iran and Afghanistan even as it grapples with its own problems due to rising attacks by Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch nationalist militants. Counterterrorism efforts, and nuclear modernization will be other things on top of agenda.

The US report said Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control. “Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries. Pakistan primarily is a recipient of China’s economic and military largesse, and Pakistani forces conduct multiple combined military exercises every year with China’s PLA, including a new air exercise completed in November 2024,” the report said.

It added that foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programs are “very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China”, and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. However, terrorist attacks targeting Chinese workers who support China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects have emerged as a point of friction between the countries.

With regard to China, the report said the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is spreading its wings across the globe in different forms. It has recently opened a centre at Ream Naval Base in Cambodia which China’s Ministry of National Defense insists is to support joint operations in areas like counterterrorism, disaster prevention, humanitarian assistance, and training. However, preceding the official opening at Ream, the PLA continuously stationed two naval combatants -- rotated a total of three times -- at the facility’s pier. China probably also has considered establishing PLA military facilities in Burma, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, Nigeria, Namibia, Mozambique, Gabon, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tajikistan, the report said.