BJP Surge Puts CM Stakes in Focus as NDA Leads Bihar Polls
With the NDA leading on 158 seats and the BJP emerging as the single largest party, questions grow over whether the saffron party will stake claim to the chief minister’s post
The NDA appears to be cruising toward a massive mandate in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, with early trends placing the alliance comfortably ahead on 158 of the 243 seats as of 9:40 am. The BJP has surged ahead as the single largest party with leads in 81 seats, while ally JDU is ahead on 76, indicating a strong consolidation of the ruling coalition’s vote base.
Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is leading in nine seats and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM (I) in two, further strengthening the NDA’s position.
BJP’s Rise Within the Alliance
The BJP’s performance marks a striking shift from previous elections. The party is showing early leads in seats such as Rajnagar, Aurai, Baruraj, Sahebganj and Kumhrar. In contrast, the opposition RJD is ahead in only two seats — Baniapur and Danapur — and the Congress in just one, Bikram.
These trends reinforce the BJP’s growing centrality within the NDA, a factor that will inevitably influence the post-poll power equation, especially the chief ministership.
Will Bihar Repeat a Maharashtra-Style Outcome?
With the BJP emerging stronger than its allies, comparisons with the 2019 Maharashtra elections have resurfaced. Back then, after the Mahayuti coalition swept the polls, the BJP secured the chief minister’s post with Devendra Fadnavis at the helm, shaping the government despite the presence of powerful regional partners.
In Bihar, the growing question is similar — will the BJP seek the CM chair if it finishes well ahead of JD(U)?
Although Nitish Kumar remains the face of the NDA campaign, the BJP's seat dominance, if reflected in final results, will give it substantial leverage. Party insiders have already begun hinting at a "new power balance" within the alliance.
Flashback: Bihar 2020 – A Closely Fought Battle
The 2020 Assembly elections saw one of the tightest finishes in the state’s recent history:
- NDA: 125 seats (just above the 122 majority mark)
- Mahagathbandhan: 110 seats
- RJD: 75 seats (single largest party)
- BJP: 74 seats
- JD(U): 43 seats
- Congress: 19 seats
- CPI(ML-L): 9 seats
- AIMIM: 5 seats
Despite the narrow margin, the NDA formed the government with Nitish Kumar as CM — but with the BJP emerging stronger than JD(U) for the first time.
Five years later, the tables may turn even more decisively.
Big Picture
With counting still underway, the NDA’s strong lead suggests the possibility of a landslide victory. A clear BJP dominance within the alliance could potentially reshape Bihar’s leadership structure, setting the stage for intense negotiations in the hours and days ahead.
Whether Bihar sees a Maharashtra-style outcome — where the BJP uses its electoral strength to claim the chief minister’s post — will depend on the final numbers and the NDA's internal consensus. But one thing is clear: the BJP is no longer the junior partner it once was in the state.
