Andhra Pradesh Pre-Poll Survey Predicts YSRC Victory

Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy expected to secure victory.
Vijayawada: A comprehensive pre-poll survey conducted by ELECSENSE, which estimated the diverse perspectives within the population of Andhra Pradesh, has predicted that Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy will win the 2024 election with 122 MLA seats with 49.14 per cent vote share, thereby retaining power after truncation of the state.
Telugu Desam is likely to secure 44.34 per cent vote share in alliance with Jana Sena. BJP’s vote share is predicted to be 0.56 per cent, while Congress could get 1.21 per cent vote share. 4.75 per cent will be the share of others.

The survey, carefully designed to ensure representation across demographics, had been conducted from December 1, 2023 to January 12, 2024 covering all 175 Assembly constituencies with a sample size of 88,700. All samples involve direct contact with voters using an in-house survey application.

Organisers stated that all the collected samples had been randomly verified through the data verification team. Genuineness verification involved 10–15 per cent of the samples. Respective doubtful samples had not been considered.

The pre-poll survey surmised that Telugu Desam and Jana Sena are contesting in alliance.

The voter sample involved demographic factors, such as gender, age groups and occupations. They covered a diverse range of topics, including voter priorities, candidate evaluation and key issues influencing electoral choices, like implementation of schemes, regional issues, development policies, stand on Special Category Status for AP, public services and governance and media influence.

Caste and community dynamics, law and order, current events, regional party preferences and affiliation with national parties had been factored in.
Further, CM satisfaction (present and previous), social welfare programmes, TD and JS alliance, state government healthcare and pandemic management, employment and economic opportunities, sand and alcohol policy, MLA satisfaction, ex-CM Nara Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest, and state government stand on three capitals also received coverage in the pre-poll survey.

The Pre-Poll Survey Outcome for Andhra Pradesh by ELECSENSE predicts 122 (+/-10) MLA seats for YSRC with 49.14 per cent vote share, 53 (+/-10) seats to TD and JS alliance, 0 seats to BJP with 0,56 per cent vote share, and no seats to Congress with 1.21 per cent vote share.

The satisfaction rating with the Chief Minister is 53.7 per cent with widespread acceptance among individuals in specific occupations, particularly housewives, daily wagers, and farmers. Regarding MLAs’ anti-incumbency, the survey indicates that a substantial portion of a constituency's residents are seeking a change in 64 incumbent MLAs.

Most women voters are favouring Jagan Mohan Reddy and the YSRC. The survey revealed that 54.77 per cent women support YSRC, 41.12 per cent TD+JS, 0.32 per cent BJP, 0.66 per cent Congress and 3.13 per cent others.

Interestingly, among male voters 49.67 per cent favour TD+JS, 45.68 per cent YSRC, 0.49 per cent BJP, 0.73 per cent Congress and 3.43 per cent others.
Age-wise, YSRC is supported by 55.07 per cent of 60+ age group, 55 per cent of 45–60 age group, 50.72 per cent of 30–45 age group and 43.04 per cent of 18–30 age group.

Interestingly, TD is supported by 53.05 per cent of 18–30 age group, 45.56 per cent of 30–45 age group, 41.95 per cent of 45–60 age group and 40.51 per cent of 60+ age group.

( Source : Deccan Chronicle )
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