Visakhapatnam: The private weather forecasting agency Skymet has predicted that the southwest monsoon, that lasts from June to September, will be below normal. The first half of the season may see better rainfall than the latter half, Skymet said.
The agency predicted 95 per cent rainfall (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average of 887 mm for the season. The India Meteoro-logical Department will come out with its monsoon forecast next month. Skymet said pre-monsoon rains would be less during April that would lead to an intense heating of the land mass. Pre-monsoon activities may pick up pace during May, Skymet CEO Jatin Singh said.
Skymet predicts recurrence of El Nino, 15 per cent chance of drought
Skymet CEO Jatin Singh predicted the recurrence of the El Niño phenomenon from July. El Niño refers to warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, and is believed to affect the monsoon in India. It may affect rain in the latter part of the monsoon. This newspaper had reported the evolving of the El Niño back in January. Mr Singh said there was a 25 per cent chance of below normal rains and 15 per cent chance of drought.
Regions like Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, central Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may record below average rainfall while east India, especially Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal are most likely to see normal monsoon rains throughout the season.