India Could Save 8 million Lives from Smoking by 2060: Report

There are currently over 1.1 billion smokers worldwide, with tobacco-related diseases posing a formidable challenge to public health systems everywhere. This critical report, “Lives Saved: Saving 100 Million Lives by 2060,” authored by distinguished public health leaders including Dr. Derek Yach, Project Leader, and Dr. Delon Human, offers a clear roadmap for how innovative science-based approaches can markedly reduce smoking-related mortality.

A pragmatic blend of traditional tobacco control and modern harm reduction could halve global smoking-related deaths if 20% of the world’s 1.1 billion smokers switched to low-risk alternatives in the next 10–15 years (with many others quitting via better support), smoking attributable deaths could be cut in half by 2060. In 23 countries studied, this strategy may prevent over 14 million premature deaths by 2060—doubling the impact of current measures. With innovation, prevention, and early screening, annual tobacco-related deaths could decline sharply by mid-century.
India, home to one of the largest populations of adult smokers with a prevalence rate of 21.8%, could save approximately 8 million lives by 2060 through the adoption of these harm reduction strategies. The report highlights that supplementing traditional tobacco control with regulated, science-based alternatives would accelerate mortality decline by 25 to 50 percent compared to continuing current measures alone. Older and middle-aged smokers, who are at the highest risk, stand to benefit most significantly.

Dr. Derek Yach, Project Leader shared, “The WHO’s FCTC has not kept pace with scientific and technological advancements. It’s time to recognise the potential of safer alternatives and prioritise harm reduction. The treaty’s current emphasis on bans and strict regulation, without distinction for risk, is outdated. We cannot afford to wait for a miracle. Saving lives requires bold action. Let us unite in our commitment to a smoke-free future – one where harm reduction leads the way.’’

“We need a 'reset' of tobacco policy – a step change in ambition. Policymakers should not remain entrenched in old battles but recognize the mounting evidence that tobacco harm reduction, when done properly, works,” added Dr. Delon Human, co-author of the report.
The authors urge policymakers to act decisively and ground their strategies in evidence, not ideology. They recommend embedding tobacco harm reduction within national and global tobacco control frameworks, recognizing safer nicotine alternatives as legitimate tools for reducing harm. Governments are encouraged to adopt risk-proportionate regulation that distinguishes between combustible tobacco and lower-risk products, while ensuring strict age verification, product quality and safety standards, and responsible marketing that protects youth.
At the same time, strengthening cessation programs, promoting early disease detection, and expanding lung cancer screening must remain top priorities. Fiscal policies should reflect the relative risks of products — higher taxes on cigarettes and lower taxes on reduced-risk alternatives — to encourage smokers to switch.
The message emerging from this analysis is simple yet profound: the tools to end the smoking epidemic already exist — what’s needed now is the courage to use them. With evidence, empathy, and the right policies, nations can turn decades of loss into a story of recovery and hope. For India, this is not just a matter of statistics; it’s a chance to change the future course of public health. The decisions made in the coming years will determine whether millions continue to suffer needlessly, or whether a new chapter begins — one defined by innovation, inclusion, and lives saved.