US Senate Passes Russia Sanctions Bill; India's Oil Imports Unlikely to Be Hit Immediately

New Delhi: Tougher sanctions on Russia are likely, as the US Senate has passed a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill that would give President Donald Trump authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on imports from countries that are among the world's largest buyers of Russian oil and gas. However, it is expected that the disruption to crude supplies may raise concerns but it is unlikely to immediately alter oil flows to India and China, according to Kepler analyst Sumit Ritolia.

As per Ritolia, the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 targets the five biggest purchasers of Russian energy and is aimed at cutting Moscow's revenues from oil and gas sales. The measure still needs to clear the US House of Representatives and faces further legislative and administrative steps before it could take effect.

“The measures still face further legislative and administrative hurdles, while their impact will depend largely on how aggressively the US administration implements them, including whether it grants exemptions or waivers. It suggests that when physical supply security becomes a concern, policymakers retain an incentive to avoid measures that could unnecessarily disrupt crude availability,” Ritolia said.

He further said that the timing of any curbs is critical as global crude markets remain relatively tight and uncertainty over Middle Eastern supplies has increased the importance of alternative sources. “A significant restriction on Russian oil could therefore tighten global balances rather than simply redirect existing trade flows,” he said.

India's dependence on Russian crude has surged since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when Western sanctions and an exodus of European buyers left Moscow offering deep discounts to Asian refiners. Russia supplied less than 100,000 barrels per day to India in 2021, or about 2.5 per cent of its crude imports, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

The volume rose to about 740,000 bpd in 2022 and nearly 1.8 million bpd in 2023, making Russia India's largest crude supplier with about 39 per cent of imports that year. The dependence has since grown further. Kpler data, however, shows that Indian refiners imported a record 2.8 million bpd of Russian crude in July 2026, accounting for about 55.5 per cent of total crude imports of just over 5 million bpd. That compares with roughly 1.8 million bpd on average in 2024,” the data said.

Ritolia said Russian crude has become an important supply hedge for Indian refiners, reducing their exposure to disruptions along traditional Middle Eastern supply routes. “This reliance became particularly evident during the recent period of heightened Middle East supply risks, when the US provided temporary sanctions flexibility that allowed Russian barrels to continue flowing to India,” he said.