Equity, Gold, Silver Outlook Bright In 2026, Crude Oil To See Further Fall : Kotak Securities

Mumbai : Nifty-50 could deliver 12 per cent plus return in 2026 aided by double digit earnings growth said Kotak Securities in its market outlook for the new year.

The brokerage house's estimates puts Nifty-50's base case target by end of 2026 at 29,120 while the benchmark index could touch a high of 32032 in a bull case and 26,208 in a bear case.

“India remains a beacon of growth amid global turbulence. Our outlook for equities is upbeat, driven by robust earnings projections and policy support while gold is expected to retain its shine as a safe-haven asset in 2026. With rising participation from young investors, the market is set for deeper engagement and wealth creation,” Shripal Shah, MD & CEO, Kotak Securities.

The sectors that look favourable from investment point of view in 2026 are BFSI, Technology, Healthcare, and Hospitality.

In 2026 gold will see further upside and may touch Rs 1.50 lakh per 10 gram or USD 5,000 dollar per ounce (28.34 gram). Kotak Securities is also bullish on Silver & Copper while it is bearish on crude oil.

Next two years are likely to see double digit earnings growth of 17 per cent in 2026 and 15 per cent in 2027, said Sripal Shah, MD& CEO, Kotak Securities adding India is entering 2026 in a strong footing with higher GDP growth than last year aided by low inflation, better monsoon and RBI and Government interventions through interest rate cut(1.25 per cent) and income tax and GST reductions respectively.

But there are challenges too with trade tariffs being single biggest worry as exports have taken a hit, Shah said.

Talking about market bouncing back from April 2025 lows when Nifty-50 was down 17 per cent from all time high Srikant Chauhan, head-Equity Research, Kotak Securities said, "Long term trend is strong & bullish. When market is at all time high, it goes into consolidation phase." "Now rally may continue with participation from large cap stocks till Budget time, later we expect participation from Mid-cap and Small-cap stocks," Chauhan said.

The recovery in market in later part of 2025 is not broad based as lots of small and mid-cap stocks are still far away from their 52 week highs.

"As primary market sucked lot of liquidity in 2024 and 2025 because of that also market is not performing compared to other global markets, as lots of funds is getting diverted towards IPOs due to strong interest of institutions and retail investors, offer for sale money is going into the pockets of promoters and institutional investors," Chauhan said.

Talking about gold's stellar performance in 2025 Anindya Banerjee, head- Commodity & Currency Research, Kotak Securities said, "Gold will continue to do well with de dollarization in progress while debasement of currency is taking market higher while gold is best preserve of wealth and has been a consistent performer around the world."

Gold delivered a stellar performance in 2025 surging over 55 per cent and crossing USD 4,000/oz driven by macro uncertainty geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying. Indian gold prices rose 60 per cent amplified by rupee depreciation

Silver too outperformed with 100 per cent gains supported by safe-haven demand and structural supply deficits while crude oil declined 19 per cent as surplus supply overshadowed geopolitical shocks setting a cautious tone for 2026.

"Base metals like copper and aluminium remain firm underpinned by structural tightness, electrification demand and supply constraints though volatility persists," Banerjee said.