Rising Copper Demand and India’s Strategic Opportunity

The competition to acquire copper is already rewriting industrial geopolitics as it quietly emerges as the most important resource globally. Nations that dominate copper refining today will command the clean-energy economies of tomorrow. Yet India, which was formerly a strong exporter of refined copper, has gradually slipped to dependence on imports. This economic setback holds enormous significance in industrial and strategic terms for the country, especially at this critical juncture when transition momentum is gathering pace globally.

Global demand for copper has been rising steadily, and prices have rallied. It recently crossed the $13,000-per-ton mark for the first time, driven by supply concerns after a major strike at a Chilean mine. In 2025 alone, copper prices surged by 42%, which marked the strongest annual performance since 2009. While several factors influence the surge, the most significant is the world’s growing dependence on copper. Modern economies quite literally run on it on every parameter. From electric wiring and renewable energy systems to electric vehicles, AI data centres, and power infrastructure, copper is embedded in almost every technology that defines growth in today.

India is no exception. As the country advances toward a future envisioned in renewable energy, electric mobility, and digital expansion, its copper demand is rising at an unprecedented pace. In FY25, the country’s copper demand rose by 9.3%, reaching approximately 1,878 kilotonnes, up from 1,718 KT in FY24. This is being fueled by the growth in infrastructure as well as the consumption of electricity-driven appliances. This is being compounded by the fact that copper is an internationally traded metal whose pricing is in U.S. dollars. Every fluctuation in global demand or currency markets directly impacts domestic prices.

However, India enters this era of rising demand with a vacuum and dependence. China holds the significant capacity of close to 70% of the world’s copper refining and smelting capacity. India, on the other hand, imports over 40% of its demand for copper. This is a vulnerable dependence in the times marked by geopolitical uncertainty.

Global projections reflect the intensity clearly. China Securities Co. analysts forecast a copper shortage of over 100,000 tonnes by the year 2026. Not only does the looming shortage pose a crisis, but in some ways, the crisis presents an opportunity to India. Looking ahead, India’s apparent copper demand is projected to rise from about 1.7 million tonnes today to nearly 3–3.3 million tonnes by 2030. This demand has to be met through increasing copper smelting and refining capacity in the country.

While emphasizing domestic production and refining capacity, it is crucial to note that before its closure in 2018, the Sterlite Copper plant in Thoothukudi accounted for nearly 36% of India’s refined copper output. Until 2017–18, India was a net exporter of refined copper. The plant’s shutdown fundamentally altered that balance.

A possibility to change this course is by a green restart of Sterlite Copper. The Green Copper framework is based on a 70% primary and 30% recycled hybrid production model. It also proposes 100% water recycling and top-notch emission controls based on cutting-edge sustainable technology. The approach holds the potential to significantly augment India’s copper capacity while addressing environmental concerns head-on.

The Green Copper framework represents a model of responsible manufacturing. It shows that industrial progress and environmental stewardship can coexist. Reopening Sterlite Copper under the Green Copper framework is about far more than restarting a single plant. It is about restoring Tamil Nadu’s and ultimately India’s strategic position in a world where copper will increasingly shape economic strength, technological progress, and national resilience.

The author Kriti Mehta, is a senior columnist