Indian Companies Likely Saw Single-Digit Growth in June Quarter

The revenue growth likely moderated for the fourth straight time to 6-8 in the first quarter of this fiscal because of low realisations and high-base effect, finds Crisil. Compared to 10-12 per cent growth in Q4FY25, the growth in Q1FY26 could be much lower.

Of the 47 sectors tracked by Crisil, 14 likely saw a fall in revenue, while 15 may have logged slower sequential growth.

Lower realisations and slowing global demand for metals and industrial commodities affected makers of aluminium, steel, ferrous alloys and petrochemicals.

Revenue of aluminium manufacturers likely fell 14-16 per cent owing to an 18-20 per cent decline in international prices and lower growth in volumes. Steel products may have logged a 6-8 per cent contraction in revenue, impacted by the high base of the previous fiscal and a drop in realisations.

With the tariff uncertainty looming large, Chinese demand for steel, aluminium and base metals was affected, leading to subdued prices. “In the first half of 2025, Chinese import of unwrought aluminium and products was down 3.2 per cent. Global aluminum premiums significantly decreased due to oversupply and soft demand exacerbated by US trade barriers,” said Ajay Kedia, MD, Kedia Commodities.

The power sector is likely to see relatively slower 5 per cent revenue growth. Revenue of export-oriented discretionary products such as cotton and synthetic textiles and gems and jewellery likely was lacklustre.

Among sectors that grew in Q1, automobiles likely grew 13-15 per cent, driven by commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles and two-wheelers.

Among others, consumer discretionary products likely grew 13-15 per cent, driven by 10-12 per cent growth in media and entertainment, 15-17 per cent growth in retail and 11-13 per cent rise in hospitality.

Price growth helped pharmaceuticals grow 12-14 per cent, and IT services grew by 16 per cent.

Operating profit margin was seen edging up to 20 per cent from 19.6 per cent in Q1FY25 and 19.3 per cent in Q4FY25 due to easing commodity prices, especially crude oil.