India To Drive Global Oil Demand Growth By 2030: IEA
“As India is the world’s third-largest oil consuming and importing nation, it will lead global oil demand growth by a large margin, adding a steep 1 million barrels per day by 2030 on the back of stellar economic expansion.
New Delhi: Global energy watchdog International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday said that India is expected to lead global oil demand growth by a large margin, adding a steep 1-million barrels per day by 2030 on the back of stellar economic expansion, while the growth in global oil production capacity may outpace the rise in demand up by the same period.
Amid continuing escalation of Israel and Iran, the IEA also said some oil markets may face some disruption, but the world is expected to remain well supplied through the end of the decade, though rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East and unresolved trade tensions could cast a shadow over the outlook.
“As India is the world’s third-largest oil consuming and importing nation, it will lead global oil demand growth by a large margin, adding a steep 1 million barrels per day by 2030 on the back of stellar economic expansion. However, the global oil demand is expected to grow by 2.5 million barrels a day by the end of the decade, reaching a plateau near 105.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030,” the IEA said in a statement.
The IEA forecast India's demand for crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries, to rise from 5.64 million bpd in 2024 to 6.66 million bpd in 2030. The country meets over 95 per cent of its oil needs through imports as domestic production is declining.
“India’s oil demand will increase by a steep 1 million bpd over the forecast period - more than any other country - in the wake of stellar GDP expansion, at an average annual rate of 2.8 per cent. While, the United States, the world’s top oil consumer, may see demand peaking at 20.47 million bpd in 2025 before starting to fall and may end at 20.01 million bpd in 2030,” it said.
The IEA further said that Chinese oil demand is projected to peak in 2027 when it will touch 16.95 million bpd (16.63 million bpd in 2024) before starting to decline and reach 16.66 million bpd in 2030. “India will remain the world's fastest-growing major economy in 2025 for a fourth year running and is projected to overtake Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy this year,” it said, adding while all key petroleum products will contribute to the expansion, transport fuels will lead the gains in India - a global anomaly.
The IEA also said that jet fuel/kerosene will rise the fastest, at almost 6 per cent annually. “The fuel, starting from a low base, stands to benefit the most from population growth of 5 per cent between 2025 and 2030 and its rapidly expanding middle class keen to spend on luxury goods and services, including foreign travel. A similar dynamic propels annual gasoline (petrol) demand growth of 4 per cent, which has significant scope for expansion,” it added.
