India Debunks Trade Uncertainty Theories With 19.3 PC Growth In Exports Amidst High Tariffs

As per the government trade data released on Monday, merchandise exports in November were up 19.38 per cent to $38.13 billion against $31.94 billion in the same month last year. In November 2024, when the trade tariffs did not exist and the global trade grew undisrupted, India’s merchandise exports were down 4.83 per cent compared to the same month in the previous year.

“I am pleasantly surprised to learn that engineering goods, which is the largest category in the export basket, has grown by 23.76 per cent. The exports to the US in total have grown 22 per cent despite tariffs. If that be the case, why should we sign a trade deal with the US,” said Pankaj Chadha, chairman, EEPC.

Among some of the categories that have the US as a key market, gems and jewellery exports grew 27.8 per cent, handicrafts excluding hand-made carpet grew 29.74 per cent, organic and inorganic chemicals by 18.49 per cent, apparels 11.27 per cent, and marine products 15.54 per cent.

“Cut and polished diamonds, which is the main segment and a key category exported to the US, has not done well in November. To understand the growth, we will have to see the segment-wise data,” said Vipul Shah, former chairman, GJEPC.

Among the top five export destinations, the US registered 22.6 per cent growth, despite the 50 per cent tariffs that made Indian products less competitive against its peers. The import data of the US for November is not available as the country releases the data with a lag of one month.

“The exports to the US had fallen from $8.8 billion in May to $6.8 billion in August. In September, the first full month under the higher tariff, exports dropped further to $5.5 billion, the lowest level of the year. The surprising development came afterward. Even with 50 percent tariffs still in place, exports recovered to $6.3 billion in October and $7.0 billion in November,” said GTRI.

Besides the US, exports to China grew 90.12 per cent, Spain 181.33 per cent, UAE 13.16 per cent and Tanzania 126.36 per cent, according to government data.

Meanwhile, import of gold, which had gone up significantly in October, fell 59.15 per cent in November.

Among other things, newsprint imports were down by 23.37 per cent, vegetable oil 19.77 per cent, and petroleum, crude and products 11.27 per cent. With this, total merchandise imports were down 1.88 per cent to $62.66 billion against $63.87 billion in November 2024 and $76.06 billion in October 2025.

With this, the trade deficit eased to $24.53 billion in November. This marks a substantial improvement from October’s deficit of $41.68 billion.