Goods Exports To Grow 4 pc to $455 bn In FY26: EXIM Bank
As per EXIM forecast, non-oil exports are likely to touch $401.6 billion, growing at 7.3 per cent. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are expected to amount to $ 364.9 billion, growing at 5.7 per cent
Chennai: Despite the trade tariffs and uncertainties, India’s merchandise exports for FY26 are expected to grow by 4.1 per cent to $455.6 billion, finds Exim Bank. The Exim Bank expects India’s export outlook to improve further, supported by a rise in overall competitiveness, though risks of global uncertainty and volatility in commodity prices persist.
India’s total merchandise exports for the full year for FY2026 are expected to be at US$ 455.6 billion, growing 4.1 per cent from $437.7 billion. The growth in exports is higher than the marginal rise of 0.08 per cent clocked in FY25. The better growth can be attributed to the frontloading of goods across the globe in the first four months of the year due to the reciprocal tariff announcement by the US.
As per EXIM forecast, non-oil exports are likely to touch $401.6 billion, growing at 7.3 per cent. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are expected to amount to $ 364.9 billion, growing at 5.7 per cent.
In the January-March quarter, total merchandise exports amounted to $125.3 billion, witnessing a year-on-year growth of 8.7 per cent, while non-oil exports are forecast to increase to $113.4 billion, growing at 12.1 per cent.
Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports too are expected to register a growth of 5.7 per cent to $98 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 5.7 per cent during the same quarter.
Between April and December in FY26, India had managed to grow merchandise exports by 2.44 per cent to $330.29 billion. In the September to December quarter, the merchandise exports were valued at $101.02 billion, lower than $125.3 billion projected by EXIM Bank for the March quarter.
India’s export outlook is expected to improve further, supported by a rise in overall competitiveness driven by sustained macroeconomic stability, competitive exchange rate, and the higher capital expenditure committed in the recent Union Budget, finds EXIM Bank.
“This momentum is further supported by policy interventions in the form of export relief measures. Increased geographical diversification of exports and favourable prospects of recently concluded trade negotiations with select countries are also expected to contribute to positive exports’ growth,” it said.
However, there are downside risks to these growth projections on account of continued global uncertainty and volatility in commodity markets, it added.
