Global Trade to Top $35 Trillion in 2025, UNCTAD Says

Global trade growth slowed in Q3 2025 but remained positive at about 2.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Both goods and services contributed to this rise: goods trade increased by nearly 2 per cent from Q2, while services expanded by 4 per cent. This positive trend is expected to continue in the final quarter of the year, with goods trade projected to grow by 0.5 per cent and services by 2 per cent. If these projections hold, global trade in 2025 will exceed $35 trillion—an increase of around $2.2 trillion, or roughly 7 per cent, compared to 2024.

Of this, trade in goods will account for about $1.5 trillion of the rise, while services are set to grow by roughly $750 billion, nearly 9 per cent.

Among the factors contributing to the positive momentum, trade between developing economies—known as South-South trade—expanded by around 8 per cent over the last four quarters, demonstrating growing resilience across developing regions.

East Asia’s exports recorded the strongest growth over the past four quarters at 9 per cent, with intra-regional trade increasing by 10 per cent. Intra-regional trade was also strong in South America. Africa showed solid growth in both imports and exports.

Meanwhile, North America’s exports fell by 3 per cent in the third quarter, while imports remained strong. Europe continued to grow in the third quarter, though at a slower pace.

UNCTAD found that imports expanded notably in Brazil and India. Over the past 12 months, services trade remained robust across major economies, with China and India leading in export growth.

India’s goods imports grew 4 per cent in the trailing four quarters, while exports grew 1 per cent. Services imports grew 8 per cent during the trailing four quarters, and exports grew 13 per cent.

Trailing four quarters growth measures the change in a variable over the last four quarters compared with the previous four quarters.