New Delhi: The GDP growth in the September quarter is expected to decelerate to 7.5-7.6 per cent over the previous three-month period mainly due to slowdown in rural demand, an SBI research report said on Monday.
The GDP growth at constant prices (2011-12) was 8.2 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2018-19.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will be releasing the estimates for GDP growth for July-September on Friday.
The ‘SBI Ecowrap’ report said the SBI Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), a basket of 21 leading indicators for September quarter of the current fiscal, is showing a marginal declining trend.
Consequently, the headline second quarter Gross Value Added (GVA) growth could be 7.3-7.4 per cent, due to the slowing of rural demand, it said.
“We also believe that the growth numbers in the second quarter will be helped by a weak base in September quarter 2017-18. We estimate that the base impact on second quarter GVA growth is around 30 bps. Based on tax collections, we subsequently expect second quarter GDP growth at 7.5-7.6 per cent,” said Ecowrap.