Global Commodity Prices Set to Rise 23% in 2026: World Bank
Middle East conflict, supply disruptions and weather risks threaten to push energy prices up 32% and precious metals by 40%.
Commodity prices are set to rise 23% in 2026 as global shocks mount. Of these, energy prices may rise 32% and food prices by 10% in 2026, according to the World Bank. Metals prices are set to reach a new high in 2026, rising 25%, while precious metals prices are projected to increase by 40%.
The conflict in the Middle East has depleted oil inventories and is set to push energy prices to a four-year high. Meanwhile, disrupted grain shipments and El Niño threaten harvests and food affordability. With oil stocks depleted, the world is more exposed to further supply shocks.
Energy prices are projected to rise 32% in 2026, reversing three years of declines, before moderating in 2027. Brent crude is forecast to average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 in 2027. Food commodity prices are expected to rise about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027—a cumulative increase of 18%—as the conflict disrupts grain shipments, El Niño threatens harvests, and high fuel and fertiliser prices increase agricultural costs. Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 23% this year before declining by 7% in 2027.
However, the forecast assumes no major intensification of conflicts affecting global commodity supplies. Energy prices could rise further if the conflict in the Middle East escalates and damage to Russia's oil infrastructure persists.
Higher-than-expected energy prices, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a very strong El Niño could combine to trigger a food crisis, pushing more people into extreme poverty, as happened in the early 2010s. In an adverse scenario in which these risks materialise together, Brent crude could average $105 a barrel in 2027, and food commodity prices could be 12% higher than projected in the baseline forecast, surpassing their 2022 levels.
“Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist. “The priority must be to protect the poorest people and support low-income countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens.”
Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2% in 2026—the largest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession. Meanwhile, consumption is expected to decline 2.5%, the third-largest annual contraction on record, after 2020 and 1980.
Fertiliser prices are set to rise 14% in 2026 following a surge in urea prices early in the year that has since eased. Prices are expected to return to 2025 levels in 2027.
Metals prices are set to reach a new high in 2026, rising 25% as aluminium, copper and tin prices all hit record highs. These gains reflect strong demand driven by investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres, together with supply disruptions this year. Prices are expected to decline by 3% in 2027.
Precious metals prices are forecast to increase by 40% in 2026 as demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Prices are expected to moderate somewhat in 2027 but remain more than three times their 2015–19 average.
