Crude Oil Loadings From Russia to India Dip to Lowest Level Since Oct 2022
Indian refiners are also actively diversifying supply, increasing intake from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE), Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Guyana), West Africa, and North America (U.S., Canada) to offset lower Russian volumes
Chennai: With the US sanctions of Russian oil companies kicking in from tomorrow (Nov 21), the crude oil loadings to India have dipped to 982 kbd, lowest since October 2022. However, arrivals in November remained elevated at 1.8 mbd as Indian refiners were trying to maximise intake prior to the sanctions.
According to real-time data and intelligence firm Kpler, Russian crude loadings to India were tracking at 982 kbd in November, sharply down from the 1.75 Mbd average seen over January–September 2025.
“The decline is driven primarily by OFAC sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, the two largest Russian suppliers to Indian refiners. While volumes may still shift, as some in-transit vessels could revise their final destinations, India-bound flows are softening. Loadings have already slowed since 21 October, though it is still early for definitive conclusions given Russia’s agility in deploying intermediaries, shadow fleets, and workaround financing,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, Kpler.
Further, there has been a noticeable uptick in undisclosed cargoes leaving Russian ports. Many of these tankers had previously been discharged in India, indicating a potential continuation of flows via less transparent channels. However, diversions to other Asian buyers cannot be ruled out.
Meanwhile, crude oil arrivals in India from Russia in November remained higher at 1.8 mbd till November 20, against 1.6 mbd in October and September.
“Imports appear higher till November 20 because November 21 marks the OFAC sanctions deadline. Indian refiners are trying to maximise intake from Rosneft and Lukoil before restrictions formally take effect. Volumes are elevated now, but we expect a visible dip in arrivals from late November into December and January as the new compliance environment kicks in,” he said.
Refiners will likely proceed more cautiously, relying on unsanctioned traders, blended barrels, and more complex logistics to minimise OFAC exposure. Russian supply will not disappear but will increasingly move through opaque channels.
Recent tanker activity suggests a notable shift in Russian crude trading behaviour, marked by mid-voyage diversions between India and China and Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfers at unusual locations such as off Mumbai’s coast, far from the typical transfer zones near the Singapore Strait. These developments reflect evolving logistical tactics by Russian exporters navigating tightening Western sanctions.
Meanwhile, Indian refiners are also actively diversifying supply, increasing intake from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE), Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Guyana), West Africa, and North America (U.S., Canada) to offset lower Russian volumes.
