Crude Crash, Bullion Up, Agri Goods Edge Lower and Rupee Move Up on Ceasefire News
Gold and silver rise while dollar dips and rupee strengthens on easing tensions
Chennai: In a major trend reversal in price movements on the two-week ceasefire announcement, crude prices crashed 15 per cent and natural gas prices fell 3 per cent, while gold and silver rose by 2-4 per cent. Platinum and copper, too, gained from the development, while prices of some of the agricultural commodities like wheat and soyabean eased. Dollar index edged lower, and rupee made some gains.
WTI crude plunged over 15% to below $95 per barrel after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Israel’s assent. The move eased fears of supply disruptions through the key route that carries about 20 per cent of global oil, reducing geopolitical risk, inflation concerns and growth worries, and triggering a sharp fall in oil prices, said Kedia Commodities.
“If tensions ease and the ceasefire evolves into a formal agreement, crude oil could fall back to $60–65 levels. If not, then $120–125 may not act as a ceiling, and prices could move even higher,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP, Commodities and Currencies, LKP Securities.
Natural gas fell over 3% to $2.77 per MMBtu, the lowest since August 2025, pressured by easing geopolitical risk and a warmer weather outlook.
On the other hand, gold rose more than 2% to above $4,800 per ounce, extending gains as the ceasefire hopes supported safe-haven demand. Gold is still down about 25 per cent from its peak during the conflict. In the Delhi spot market, gold prices jumped around Rs 4000 per 10 gm to Rs 1,55,600 and silver moved up to Rs 2.51 lakh.
According to Trivedi, compared to the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict, the current situation involves the US directly. When the US is involved, inflation tends to rise, strengthening the dollar and limiting gains in gold and silver. War premium builds only if the conflict persists for a longer duration.
“If the ceasefire holds, lower inflation could give the Federal Reserve room to cut rates, which would support gold,” he said.
Silver climbed over 4% to above $76 per ounce, hitting a three-week high. Despite the rebound, prices remain about 37% below peak levels.
Copper on MCX rose over 2% to near 1185, also a three-week high, as easing energy risks and improved sentiment supported the outlook for global industrial activity.
Platinum crossed $2,000 per ounce, reaching a three-week high, though gains may be capped by weak automotive demand amid the EV transition and rising recycling supply, particularly in Europe.
The dollar index slipped below 99 to a four-week low and rupee gained to 92.56 levels.
Among agri commodities, wheat dropped 2.8% to $5.80 per bushel, its lowest since early March and soybeans slipped below $11.5 per bushel to a one-month low.
