Israel Blocks Gaza Aid as Ceasefire Stalls, Phase Two in Doubt
Netanyahu government halts humanitarian supplies, seeks to delay next stage of truce while pressuring Hamas
When Israel signed a ceasefire deal with Hamas in Gaza on January 15, the agreement was structured in three phases. Phase one, a six-week period in which Hamas would release hostages in return for Israel releasing Palestinians detained in its jails, ended on March 1.
The shaky deal has held for the full six weeks, just. At one point, Hamas threatened to halt the exchange of hostages, accusing Israel of breaching the terms. The Netanyahu government, with U.S. backing, threatened to end the ceasefire in mid-February, claiming Hamas was not fulfilling its side of the deal.
The hostage releases continued, although Israelis were shocked and angered by the condition of some hostages after 17 months in captivity. Hamas also took advantage of the world’s attention during hostage releases to stage large parades of its armed fighters.
On March 1, as phase one was due to end, Netanyahu ordered a full blockade of humanitarian aid entering Gaza. Middle East expert Scott Lucas answered questions about the situation and how it may unfold.
Why has Israel decided to block humanitarian aid to Gaza?
The Netanyahu government’s move to block humanitarian aid is part of a plan to avoid phase two of the ceasefire, while pressuring Hamas to extend phase one. This would allow Israel to pursue the return of the remaining 59 hostages held by Hamas, either alive or dead, while avoiding phase two’s requirements, such as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the restoration of a Palestinian government there. However, more than 2.2 million Gazans, 90% of whom have been displaced, will bear the cost.
Wasn't the ceasefire deal governed by a timetable?
Phase one of the agreement stipulated that discussions for phase two should begin within 14 days of implementation, around February. However, the Netanyahu government reportedly sent mediators to Qatar without authority to discuss phase two, focusing only on ensuring hostage releases continued. Current talks suggest little chance of an agreement on phase two.
What is driving Netanyahu’s decision-making right now?
Netanyahu’s stated goal is “absolute victory over Hamas,” but there is no sign that Hamas will disband or its leaders leave Gaza, making phase two unfeasible. Netanyahu faces pressure from hard-right ministers, like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and former national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who only accepted phase one under the condition that no follow-up would occur, particularly regarding Palestinian self-determination. Meanwhile, families of hostages demand their return, and the Israeli government, backed by the U.S., proposes a six-week extension until April 20, with half the hostages released on day one.
Where is the White House in all this?
Netanyahu can rely on U.S. support for pressuring Hamas and extending phase one. Donald Trump claimed credit for the ceasefire but has shown little interest in supporting phase two. Instead, Trump proposed relocating Gazans to other Arab countries to make way for his vision of a “Middle East Riviera.” The U.S. administration is likely to back Netanyahu’s “blame Hamas” rationale, while supporting Israeli military operations and West Bank settlements.
What about the Arab world?
The phase one settlement has brought relief to Egypt and Qatar, the main sites of negotiations. Jordan has encouraged further talks, and Gulf States, whose plans for normalization with Israel are in tatters, could envision a gradual return to the process. However, the possibility of phase two remains unclear. Most Arab nations have no affection for Hamas, but with no clear Palestinian alternative, they are reluctant to engage in necessary security arrangements. Thus, many Arab states will likely be content with a phase one extension, without providing an endorsement.