Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring between 53 and 67 metres wide, was initially feared to have a 3% chance of striking Earth, prompting a planetary defence alert earlier this year. However, revised data now places that risk at just 0.0017%.
The moon, however, remains at risk. According to James Webb Space Telescope observations, the probability of YR4 striking the lunar surface has risen to 4.3%. A Canadian research team has simulated the potential consequences of such an impact, estimating it would create a 1-km wide crater and eject millions of kilograms of debris into space.
Some of that debris could reach Earth days later, lighting up the skies in a rare and vivid meteor display. The findings, which are yet to be peer-reviewed, suggest the event could pose a hazard to orbital satellites while offering a unique celestial spectacle.