US Midterms Polling Gets Underway
Multiple polls and nonpartisan analysts are favoring Democrats to wrest the House from Republicans while control of the Senate remains uncertain
Washington: Polls opened on the US east coast on Tuesday in midterm elections that could upend Donald Trump's presidency, with Democrats looking to seize control of Congress and significantly curb his executive powers.
Multiple polls predict Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives and have a shot at seizing the Senate on the back of voter resentment at a deeply unpopular president, soaring energy costs and the dragging conflict with Iran.
After years of high inflation, many Americans say congressional candidates’ positions on the cost of living will be the biggest factor in how they cast their vote. Others will look at positions on protecting democracy and democratic norms, or candidates’ views on immigration and crime.
House For Democrats, Senate Uncertain
Multiple polls and nonpartisan analysts are favoring Democrats to wrest the House from Republicans while control of the Senate remains uncertain.
The battle for the Senate is unfolding across nearly 10 closely contested statewide races, most in Republican strongholds.
History is against Trump's Republicans: the sitting president's party has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since World War Two. Trump's approval rating is hovering near his all-time lows, dragged down by deep voter frustration over the war with Iran and the resulting rise in fuel prices.
All Eyes on Trump
There is little doubt this year's election is all about Trump, the central US political figure for most of the last decade. Trump himself has told his supporters repeatedly to "pretend I'm on the ballot," a message Democratic leaders have happily echoed.
The president has sought to energize his base with more than two dozen campaign rallies since the start of October, the vast majority in states he easily won in 2024, underscoring the extent to which Republicans are playing defense.
Led by Trump, Republicans have portrayed Democratic candidates as radical, un-American and even communist.
"The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history," Trump said on Monday during a speech in Washington.
But opinion polls show voters are most concerned about affordability and disapprove of Trump's handling of the issue, after his sweeping tariff policy and his decision to attack Iran in February increased domestic costs. Republican candidates, meanwhile, have struggled to distance themselves from a president who demands fealty and rarely acknowledges mistakes.
What Would Midterm Elections Change
All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, though the majority of contests are not considered competitive. Democrats must flip at least three House seats and four Senate seats to win a majority in each chamber.
A Democratic House or Senate could launch investigations into what Democrats describe as self-dealing by the Trump administration and demand concessions to approve legislation.
A Democratic Senate would also have the power to block Trump appointments, including US Supreme Court nominations if vacancies arise.
But while Democrats have put Republicans on the defensive on much of their home turf, they have little margin for error. The party must defend all of its current seats, including a tight race in Michigan, while winning at least two states that voted for Trump by a double-digit margin two years ago: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
Opinion polls show Democrats either narrowly leading or within striking distance in all of those states.