BJP Set to Emerge as Single-Largest Party in Bihar
Modi’s high-voltage campaign, welfare delivery, and a fragmented opposition fuel NDA’s dominant lead across the state
The BJP-led NDA is headed for a landslide victory in Bihar, with early trends showing the alliance leading in over 180 of the state’s 243 seats, marking one of its strongest performances yet. The BJP alone was leading in over 80 of the 101 seats it contested, putting it on course to become the single-largest party and delivering its best strike rate ever in the state.
As per Election Commission data by Thursday noon, the results reflect a sweeping mandate for the NDA, backed by strong showings in recent polls in Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana.
What Worked for the BJP
1. Modi–Nitish Synergy Delivered Stability
The firm backing of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah reassured voters about continuity and governance stability. JD(U), which had slipped to 43 seats in 2020, surged to leads in over 70 seats, giving the alliance a strong combined momentum.
2. PM Modi’s High-Voltage Campaign
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s extensive rallies and focused messaging on welfare, development, and national security significantly boosted the BJP’s campaign. His targeted outreach to youth and first-time voters, along with a narrative centred on stability and progress, resonated widely across regions.
3. Welfare Schemes and Last-Mile Delivery
Central schemes such as free ration, Ujjwala LPG benefits, PM Awas Yojana, and PM-KISAN proved decisive. Beneficiaries credited the BJP for last-mile delivery and consistent support during tough economic phases, creating strong goodwill among lower-income households.
4. Strong Organisational Network
The BJP’s grassroots machinery, from booth committees to district-level teams, ensured high voter mobilisation. Early deployment of cadres, meticulous micro-management, and data-driven campaigning gave the party a clear organisational advantage over the opposition.
5. LJP(RV)’s Support Strengthened NDA's Base
Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV), contesting only 29 seats, was leading in over 20, signalling effective consolidation of NDA votes. His proximity to PM Modi and “Hanuman” pitch attracted young voters and Paswan’s traditional Dalit support base.
6. Fragmented Opposition and Weak RJD Campaign
The RJD-led INDIA bloc struggled to consolidate anti-NDA votes. Internal rifts, absence of a strong chief ministerial face, and controversies involving the Yadav brothers weakened their narrative. The BJP used this vacuum to sharpen its messaging and expand its base.
7. Caste Calculus Tilted in BJP’s Favour
The BJP made substantial gains among non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, and upper-caste voters—groups dissatisfied with the RJD’s leadership and wary of a return to its past governance style. Strategic ticket distribution helped the party cut across caste lines more effectively.
8. Law-and-Order Narrative Worked Yet Again
The BJP revived its long-standing contrast between the alleged “jungle raj” of the Lalu Prasad era and the NDA’s governance model. This narrative still holds strong appeal among urban, aspirational, and first-time voters concerned about safety and development.
Key Contests
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Deputy CMs Samrat Choudhary (Tarapur) and Vijay Kumar Sinha (Lakhisarai) were comfortably ahead.
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RJD’s CM face Tejashwi Yadav was trailing BJP’s Satish Kumar by nearly 100 votes.
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His brother Tej Pratap Yadav was placed a distant fourth in Mahua.
What Lies Ahead
If trends convert into results, the BJP will outperform JD(U) for the second straight election, potentially fuelling internal demands for a BJP chief minister. However, both PM Modi and Amit Shah have publicly maintained that the NDA in Bihar is “led by Nitish Kumar,” mindful of coalition arithmetic at the Centre.