Israel Election Polls Show Netanyahu, Opposition Short of Majority

The surveys, aired by Israeli television channels on Friday, forecast that several smaller parties would fail to cross the electoral threshold, potentially narrowing the options for forming a governing coalition after Tuesday's vote.

According to The Times of Israel, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party is projected to emerge as the largest faction in two of the three surveys, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud. Yoaz Hendel's Reservists party is forecast to enter the Knesset in only one of the three polls, while Ofer Winter's People of Israel party is projected to fall short in all three.

A Channel 13 poll predicted that the change bloc would win 54 seats, compared with 50 for parties loyal to Netanyahu, while predominantly Arab parties would secure 16 seats.

The survey projected 22 seats for Yashar, 19 for Likud, 14 for Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad and 10 for the left-wing Democrats. The Joint List was forecast to win nine seats, while Yisrael Beytenu, Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism were each projected to secure eight seats. Shas and Ra'am were forecast to win seven seats apiece.

The poll also indicated that the parties led by Winter, Hendel and Moti Leitner would fail to enter the Knesset.

A Channel 12 survey projected 56 seats for the change bloc and 50 for the governing coalition, with the Joint List and Ra'am together securing 14 seats.

The poll gave Yashar 23 seats, Likud 21, B'Yachad 15 and the Democrats 10. The Joint List was projected to win nine seats, while Yisrael Beytenu, Shas and Otzma Yehudit were each forecast to secure eight. United Torah Judaism was projected to win seven seats, Religious Zionism six and Ra'am five.

Like the Channel 13 survey, the Channel 12 poll predicted that the parties led by Winter, Hendel and Leitner would fail to cross the electoral threshold.

A poll by public broadcaster Kan offered a slightly different picture, projecting 52 seats for the change bloc, 50 for Netanyahu's coalition and 14 for the Arab parties. Hendel's Reservists party was forecast to enter the Knesset with four seats.

The Kan survey projected 22 seats for Yashar, 20 for Likud and 14 for B'Yachad. The Joint List was forecast to win nine seats, while the Democrats, Otzma Yehudit, Yisrael Beytenu and United Torah Judaism were each projected to secure eight seats. Shas and Religious Zionism were forecast to win seven seats each, while Ra'am was projected to get five.

Winter's People of Israel party and Leitner's Charedi Public party were also projected to fall short in the Kan poll.

The Times of Israel reported that the surveys were published on Friday before a ban on releasing election polls came into effect on Saturday. Exit polls are expected to be released when polling stations close at 10 pm on Tuesday.

The Channel 13 survey, conducted by pollsters Shmuel Rosner and Noah Slepkov, included 1,875 respondents and had a margin of error of 2.3 per cent. The Channel 12 poll, conducted by Midgam's Manu Geva, surveyed 1,018 respondents and had a 4.4 per cent margin of error. Kan's survey, conducted by Dudu Hasid of the Kantar Institute, included 1,106 respondents and had a 3 per cent margin of error.

The surveys followed a final pre-election poll published by Zman Yisrael, The Times of Israel's sister site, which projected 51 seats each for the two Jewish-led blocs, 14 for Arab-led parties and four for Reservists.

With neither major bloc projected to reach the 61-seat majority, forming a government could depend on parties reconsidering campaign pledges not to join forces with certain factions.

The Times of Israel reported that if no governing coalition can be formed, repeat elections could be held in early 2027, with Netanyahu remaining caretaker prime minister in the interim.

The Israeli polls come at a time when Israel Defence Forces on Friday (local time) said that it has launched a "limited counterterrorism" operation in the Hebron area following the killing of two of its soldiers in a shooting attack.

In a post on X, IDF said, "In response to the shooting attack in which 2 IDF soldiers fell, and several others were wounded, the IDF along with other security forces launched a targeted & limited counterterrorism operation in the Hebron area, from which the terrorists had emerged."

IDF said troops have begun conducting precise searches throughout the area to locate and dismantle terrorist infrastructure and weapons, while questioning suspects.

It further cautioned that residents living in the area where forces are operating will be able to leave through three designated exit points.

"Following questioning and security screening. Individuals who raise suspicion during the screening process will be referred to security forces for further questioning," IDF said.

Earlier on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had visited Hebron after ordering a "full lockdown" of the West Bank following a "terror attack" in the area that left five people wounded in an assault by alleged Hamas militants, just five days before Israel goes to the polls.