El Nino Over Central Pacific Ocean Expected to Peak Towards November End
According to the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), typically the El Nino phenomenon takes nine to 12 months to form and dissipate.
Hyderabad:This year’s El Nino over the central Pacific ocean, expected to become the strongest in recorded history, was expected to peak sometime towards the end of November, or in December, and was expected to take time to dissipate before paving way for a Indian monsoon friendly La Nina phase.
There was no certainty as to how long this year’s El Nino, already severely impacting rainfall, would linger. It had begun forming in the middle of May.
“While we understand and there is certainty about the El Nino, it is very early to say how long it might last. It is taking around six months to reach the peak, and it could take months from December onwards to dissipate. Only if the El Nino dissipates will La Nina begin forming. This means we need to be cautious from now itself about the prospects of next year’s southwest monsoon. If El Nino lingers into the first half of next year, then the monsoon could be under a cloud,” according to a senior meteorologist.
According to the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), typically the El Nino phenomenon takes nine to 12 months to form and dissipate.
This year, temperatures in the El Nino region of the Pacific Ocean currently range from +2.9 degrees Celsius in the Nino 1+2 region, while it is +1.7 degrees in Nino 3, and +1.4 degrees in Nino 3-4 region, as per NOAA data. The larger the number, the further away from the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in South America where El Nino begins forming and slowly spreads westwards across the ocean.