Bypolls: Ruling Parties Dominate, ‘Sympathy Factor’ Fails

Hyderabad: Assembly bypolls in Telangana since the state’s formation in 2014 have produced striking political trends, notably the limited success of the “sympathy factor” in influencing voter behaviour. Except for the Nagarjunasagar contest, attempts by political parties to ride on the emotional appeal of nominating family members of deceased legislators have largely failed. At the same time, the ruling parties of the day have maintained a clear edge, winning most byelections held in the state.

This trend is being tested again in the Jubilee Hills bypoll, where the opposition BRS has fielded Maganti Sunitha, wife of BRS MLA Maganti Gopinath who passed away in June. The party is counting on public sympathy for a win in a constituency it has long dominated.

Eight Assembly bypolls have been held in Telangana since state formation. Of these, seven took place during the BRS regime between 2014 and 2023, while one after the Congress came to power in December 2023. Ruling parties dominated these contests: BRS secured five victories, while the BJP captured seats in two bypolls. The lone bypoll under the Congress government, in Secunderabad Cantonment, was also won by the ruling party.

A closer look at the contests triggered by the death of MLAs underlines the failure of the sympathy card. In Narayankhed (February 2016), following the death of Congress MLA P. Kishta Reddy, the party fielded his son P. Sanjeeva Reddy, who lost to BRS nominee M. Bhupal Reddy by over 53,000 votes.

In Palair (May 2016), after the death of Congress MLA Ramreddy Venkat Reddy, the party fielded his wife R. Sucharitha Reddy, who was defeated by BRS leader Tummala Nageswara Rao by more than 45,000 votes.

The pattern repeated in Dubbak (November 2020), where BRS candidate Solipeta Sujatha, wife of the late MLA Solipeta Ramalinga Reddy, was edged out by BJP’s M. Raghunandan Rao by 1,079 votes. In Secunderabad Cantonment (May 2024), BRS nominee G. Niveditha, sister of deceased MLA Lasya Nanditha, not only lost to the Congress candidate Sriganesh by 13,026 votes but slipped to third place after the BJP.

The exception was Nagarjunasagar (April 2021), where BRS fielded Nomula Bhagat, son of MLA Nomula Narasimhaiah. Bhagat defeated Congress veteran K. Jana Reddy by a margin of 18,872 votes, marking the only instance where sympathy appeared to have worked in the state.

Three other bypolls were caused by resignations rather than deaths. Only one defector, Etala Rajendar, managed to retain his seat. In Huzurabad (October 2021), after being sacked from the K. Chandrashekar Rao Cabinet and the BRS, Rajendra resigned as MLA, joined the BJP, and defeated BRS nominee Gellu Srinivas Yadav by 23,855 votes in the ensuing bypolls.

In contrast, the Congress fared poorly in its own resignation-triggered contests. In Huzurnagar (October 2019), after N. Uttam Kumar Reddy vacated his seat upon election to the Lok Sabha, his wife N. Padmavathi Reddy was defeated by BRS candidate Shanampudi Saidi Reddy by over 43,000 votes.

In Munugode (November 2022), defector Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy contested as a BJP candidate but lost to BRS nominee Kusukuntla Prabhakar Reddy by more than 10,000 votes in the byelections.

With this track record, the Jubilee Hills bypoll will serve as a fresh test of whether the sympathy factor still has any sway in Telangana’s political landscape or whether the established pattern of ruling-party dominance will continue.