Polling in Madurantakam and Dharapuram will test Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay’s government and the strength of the Opposition.

Preparations are complete for the polling exercise to be held on October 6 for byelections to Madurantakam and Dharapuram Assembly Constituencies and the Tamil Nadu voters are poised to decide the fortunes of the fledgling TVK regime which hinges on outside support for its survival. The hectic campaign by Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay, DMK President MK Stalin, Leader of Opposition Udhyanidhi Stalin and AIADMK supremo Edappadi K Palaniswami, not seen often during run up to the bypolls, has only underscored the political significance as results are pretty crucial for both the ruling and Opposition camps.

For the TVK, the poll outcome will decide if it can shore-up its strength in the Assembly or not, and as regards the DMK, which did not expect to lose the April Assembly polls, it will be crucial to bounce back. After being pushed to the third spot, the AIADMK has strained every nerve to take back its space.
The bypolls face a tough five-corner fight as the ruling TVK, main opposition DMK, key Dravidian party AIADMK, the Left Front, and Tamil nationalist TVK are in the fray. Opposition's allegation that the byelections are not a natural outcome but something forced on the people due to "horse-trading" is a core issue that echoed during campaigning.
The TVK, however, has repeatedly rejected the claim, maintaining that the AIADMK MLAs quit the party and joined it following frustration over attempts by Edappadi Palaniswami camp to join forces with "evil force" DMK in order to form a government.
CM Vijay, during his campaign, portrayed the TVK as the true successor to the welfare legacy of iconic AIADMK leaders and late chief ministers MG Ramachandran and 'Madam' J Jayalalithaa who fought against the DMK all their lives. In effect, Vijay sought to appropriate the electoral space occupied by the AIADMK.
The TVK is also heavily banking on the implementation of welfare measures including the expanded fare-free bus services scheme for women and the one-gram gold ring plan for newborns. Expansion of the breakfast scheme for school children up to class eight was among the other schemes implemented by Vijay.
Vijay held extensive roadshows, drove a farm tractor and also rode a bullock cart in Madurantakam and Dharapuram respectively. The bypolls are the first after the TVK assumed office in May, and its outcome will not only be seen as a referendum on TVK founder and CM Vijay's governance, but also as an indicator of the public sentiment which will decide the results of more byelections expected in near future.
Although the CPI and CPI (M), who have four MLAs, have time and again committed themselves to continue to support the government from outside, the fact that they have been pretty critical of the TVK and its governance model have led to questions over the stability of the nearly five-month old new regime.
Left's strong opposition to the proposed Secretariat-Assembly Complex and the Marxist party's allegation that the ruling party was distributing "money to secure votes" for the bypolls and that it tops the list of parties that have given cash to influence voters are among the sources of friction.
Also, despite the appeal of TVK leaders to the Left to join the government, they have declined the offer more than once.
Amid such strains, there is also a speculation about the possibility of PMK, with four MLAs, extending support to the government.
However, VCK, a key alliance partner of the TVK with two MLAs, continues to maintain that it would not be part of any formation in which the "casteist" PMK becomes a constituent.
Though the PMK declared that it would not support any party in the bypolls, its alleged supporters waving party flags, expressing support to CM Vijay when he campaigned days ago in Madurantakam, has attracted attention.
In Madurantakam, a segment in north Tamil Nadu near Chennai with pockets of solid support base for the PMK, 27 candidates are in the fray and in Dharapuram, a part of western Tamil Nadu where AIADMK had performed well in several elections, there are 22 candidates.
In the 234-member strong Tamil Nadu Assembly, after resignations by legislators, seven vacancies arose.
While CM Vijay retained Perambur constituency and resigned the Tiruchirappalli (East) seat, AIADMK's Maragatham Kumaravel (Madurantakam), P Sathyabama (Dharapuam), S Jayakumar (Perundurai), Esakki Subaya, (Ambasamudram), C Vijayabhaskar, (Viralimalai) and M R Vijayabhaskar, (Karur) resigned their seats.
Presently the TVK has 107 MLAs (including Speaker), DMK 59, AIADMK 41, Congress 5, PMK 4, CPI and CPI (M) two each, VCK 2 and IUML 2. BJP, DMDK, AMMK one each. The effective House strength is 227.
Bypolls were announced by the EC for Madurantakam and Dharapuram (both reserved segments) as petitions related to the resignation of MLAs and connected matters were pending before the Madras High Court.
The TVK has fielded Maragatham Kumaravel and Sathyabama in Madurantakam and Dharapuram respectively. DMK's I Paranthamen and AIADMK's Kanitha Sampath are the two other key rivals faced by TVK in Madurantakam. As regards Dharapuarm, DMK's S Suganya and AIADMK's K Bhanumathi are the two formidable rivals faced by the ruling party.
Polling will be held between 7 am and 6 pm in the two constituencies on Tuesday and officials said all arrangements, including adquate security, were in place to ensure peaceful polling.


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