Gold Can Move Towards Rs 1.5 Lakh in 2026 Amidst Volatility
In the international market prices have jumped from $2623 per ounce to $4340 – gaining 65 per cent.
Chennai: The structural drivers which supported gold in 2025 will continue to push gold prices further towards Rs 1.5 lakh per 10 gm levels in 2026. However, volatility in the bullion market cannot be ruled out, find experts.
Gold prices in the Multi Commodity Exchange have moved up from Rs 76,772 per 10 gm at the beginning of the year to Rs 1,35,000 towards the end of December, up by 75 per cent. In the international market prices have jumped from $2623 per ounce to $4340 – gaining 65 per cent.
The year 2025 marked one of the strongest rallies in gold in recent history, supported by heightened geopolitical risks, sustained ETF inflows, a weaker U.S. dollar, and continued accumulation by global central banks. These structural drivers are expected to remain relevant in 2026, providing a firm long-term underpinning to prices.
“Gold retains potential for a further 10–12 per cent upside, with prices gradually approaching the Rs 1,50,000 level in the Multi Commodity Exchange and $4820 per ounce in the international market,” finds Ajay Kedia, MD, Kedia Commodities.
The combination of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar paired with heightened risk aversion would create a continued supportive environment for gold, finds the World Gold Council.
“Our analysis shows that, in this environment, gold could rise 5 – 15 per cent in 2026 from current levels, depending on the severity of the economic slowdown, and the speed and magnitude of the rate cuts,” finds WGC.
This would represent a solid return in a normal year, but following 2025’s strong performance, it would still be considered a noteworthy follow-up, it added.
However, with significant gains already realised, investors should factor in the possibility of interim price or time-based corrections, particularly if geopolitical tensions ease or global risk sentiment improves, finds Kedia.
“On the downside, gold may test support near $3,420, with the risk of a deeper 15–20 per cent adjustment not entirely ruled out,” he added.
Rising yields, a stronger dollar, and the shift toward risk-on positioning weigh heavily on gold, prompting a notable withdrawal of investor interest. According to WGC, such a situation can result in a gold price correction of between 5 per cent and 20 per cent, from current levels.