Below-Normal Rains Forecast for AP in September: IMD
For coastal Andhra Pradesh, IMD's August 31 warning indicated thunderstorms, lightning and strong surface winds on Sept 1 and 2, with no warning thereafter through Sept 6.
Visakhapatnam:Andhra Pradesh is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which has forecast below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole.
Addressing the media on Monday, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the country's rainfall in September was likely to be below 91 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The forecast comes after a weak August, when rainfall over the country was 16 per cent below normal.
A deficient August and the likely shortfall in September could further widen the seasonal monsoon deficit and put pressure on agriculture and water resources.
Responding to questions on Andhra Pradesh, Mohapatra said north coastal AP, along with the rest of the state, was likely to receive below-normal rainfall. Rainfall in the state would depend on the formation of post-monsoon systems in the Bay of Bengal.
“So far five low pressure systems have been formed to the north of Bay of Bengal but not much rain has occurred over the state,’’ Mohapatra said.
The IMD had earlier revised its forecast for the June-September monsoon season to 90 per cent of LPA, with a model error of ±4 percentage points. The probability of deficient rainfall for the season was put at 60 per cent, while the probability of below-normal rainfall was 24 per cent, giving an overall 84 per cent probability of deficient or below-normal seasonal rainfall.
Mohapatra said the immediate outlook was less favourable for the southern peninsula. IMD said on August 31 that subdued rainfall activity was likely to continue over Peninsular India during the following week.
For coastal Andhra Pradesh, IMD's August 31 warning indicated thunderstorms, lightning and strong surface winds on Sept 1 and 2, with no warning thereafter through Sept 6.
IMD attributed the weakening monsoon to the strengthening of El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Its earlier seasonal assessment said neutral ENSO conditions were transitioning towards El Nino and model forecasts indicated further development of El Nino during the monsoon season.