DC Edit | Ukraine peace: Is Trump serious?

Donald Trump had often boasted that had he been in office in place of Joe Biden he could have stopped the Ukraine war with one phone call to Russia’s Vladimir Putin. That all of it may not have been just braggadocio was proved when it appears an effort to end the near three-year war has taken off after a 90-minute phone call between Washington and Moscow.

A geopolitically uncertain world that was overtaken by two major conflicts would certainly be grateful if indeed Trump has convinced Putin to sit down and negotiate the end of a war that has ravaged Ukraine while costing several hundred thousand lives on both sides, including some North Korean troops and stray Brits and Indians sucked into battle through shady job offers.

Ukraine may have next to nil leverage in any negotiations, but it may be forced to accept loss of land in a Trump formula that has already determined Ukraine will not become a member of Nato. Since its Nato membership application was said to be one of the root causes for Putin to invade, it appears as if a solution, however painful for the attacked Ukraine and its leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, could be on the horizon, tricky as the war’s end may be when serious negotiations begin.

The only bargaining chip that Zelenskyy holds is a 400 sq km swath of territory captured in Russia’s Kursk region. However remote an asset it appears, Trump’s word on continuing to back Ukraine with aid could be a reason for Zelenskyy to negotiate to meet his immediate objective which would be for the bombing to stop destroying Ukraine’s cities and their power supply.

Ukraine may have to sacrifice most of the 65,000 sq km of land Russia captured from it since February 24, 2022, mostly in the Kharkiv region, as the border with Russia is certain to be redrawn, but without any hope of Ukraine ever getting back Crimea, annexed in a 2014 Russian invasion.

For Putin, any opportunity to consort with the US after years of isolation and sanctions would be a political victory that may mean more than the pieces of Ukraine he has carved out for Russia. Land for peace will be a major sacrifice for Ukraine as it may lose 20 per cent of the country but that such peace will push the world back from a far wider global conflict makes it seem worthwhile.