DC Edit | Take Steps To Allay Stress Of El Nino-hit Monsoon

El Nino — Spanish may be one of the most distant languages for the sub-continent, but the two words strung together in the 16th century by Peruvians are no strangers to India and Indians. With this year's El Nino set to be one of the strongest in history and expected to leave scars on India — the beginnings of some which are already becoming visible in the form of deficient rainfall across large swathes of the country — the phenomenon of a tongue of warming water welling up in the Central Pacific Ocean could well become the most talked about weather phenomenon in the country.

For a country driven by the summer monsoon rain, the sub-par rainy season that the Indian Meteorological Department had predicted is nothing short of a punch in the solar plexus. The challenge may not be as much as meeting the drinking water needs of the people, despite rivers expected not to be in full flow as they have been the past several years. What’s most concerning is that around 51 per cent of the country's net sown area of 1,410 lakh hectares of cropland depends on rain.

The even greater challenge is the ability, or willingness, of the Central and state governments to take the people into confidence, speak openly about what might happen if the IMD predictions hold true or take a turn for the worse which appears to be the case as of now. The question is not about hitting the panic button, but preparing people for what might come, especially with the El Nino expected to last till around February 2027.

While it is too early to say what might happen with next year's rainy season, what needs to be borne in mind is that India's rivers will have to work double time to make up for this year's deficits next year which means even a normal monsoon season in 2027 could still pose some challenges.

There appears to be a distant silver lining in that the Indian Ocean Dipole — a sea condition that can act as a countervailing factor that can mitigate El Nino's impact — may turn positive, but this for now remains in the realm of meteorological speculation. If it does happen, it might just be too late to save the summer monsoon season.

Governments, as a rule, are wary, or even downright reluctant to share bad news with the people. But there comes a time in every country's life when the truth must be spoken, and people must be prepared for the worst.

No one wants a poor, or even worse, a bad monsoon, but the signs are already there. The agriculture ministry has placed 315 districts in the country on a poor monsoon watch list. This number alone does not tell the whole truth as it appears to be small for a country as vast as India. But 315 represents 39 per cent of Indian landmass and the prospect of more than a third of the country being brought to its knees is a thought that should send shudders through the rank and file of the country’s planners.

When rivers start running dry, existing inter-state battles over river water sharing will likely turn more intense as states seek drinking water supplies. What the skies are set to do this year has been predicted. What remains to be seen is what those on the ground will do now.