DC Edit | Make Siang Protesters See Brahmaputra Wall’s Need
The real intent of the proposed 11,200-MW project is not merely power generation. It has acquired enormous strategic importance because of China’s decision to construct a gigantic 60,000-MW hydropower complex on the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, upstream of the Brahmaputra
The violent protests against the proposed Siang Upper Multipurpose Project in Arunachal Pradesh have presented the Narendra Modi government with a challenge that goes far beyond building a hydel power dam. Now at stake are India’s national security, the safety of crores of people in the Northeast, the rights of indigenous communities and also the government's ability to handle democratic dissent.
The real intent of the proposed 11,200-MW project is not merely power generation. It has acquired enormous strategic importance because of China’s decision to construct a gigantic 60,000-MW hydropower complex on the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, upstream of the Brahmaputra. The mega-project, which Beijing approved in December 2024, has fundamentally altered strategic calculations for water security in northeastern India.
China claims that the project is of the run-of-the-river type, in which water is diverted through tunnels to a lower elevation to generate electricity and then returned to the river, and does not have enormous storage capacities. Even moderate estimates suggest that the project will have a water holding capacity of 194 thousand million cubic (TMC) feet of water.
A sudden release of impounded water, whether deliberate, accidental or caused by structural failure, could send devastating floodwaters downstream in the northeastern region, and Bangladesh. As the project is located on the Paizhen Fault, a geologically active area where the Indian plate converges with the Eurasian plate, the risk to the downstream areas is immense. Apart from this, Beijing’s ability to regulate enormous volumes of water poses a potential threat to India.
The recent Himalayan flood disasters affecting Nepal and the adjoining Tibetan region have demonstrated how a sudden surge of water can overwhelm settlements and infrastructure downstream. By being a mute spectator to China’s projects, India cannot afford to outsource the security of its northeastern population dependent on decisions taken by China.
India, therefore, decided to build the Siang project, which will serve as a Himalayan wall for water from Tibet. Though this project was first proposed in 1982 during the Indira Gandhi government, it was declared a national project in 2008 by the Manmohan Singh government. The current proposal was mooted by Niti Aayog in 2017 as China’s actions imparted a sense of urgency to the project.
However, the indigenous Adi tribal communities opposed the project fearing the submergence of ancestral villages, the destruction of agricultural land, displacement and irreversible damage to their cultural identity. Protests turned violent in Pasighat on October 23. Though violence deserves unequivocal condemnation, the intensity of the backlash should compel the government to examine why opposition has reached such alarming proportions.
Given China’s strategic interest in the project, the possibility of Beijing influencing some people in Arunachal is ruled out. However, it would be a grave mistake on the part of the government to portray the protests as foreign-inspired, crush them with a heavy hand and risk spreading a local dispute into a wider region. The Centre should, therefore, initiate talks with representatives of the affected communities and convince them about the need for India’s wall on Brahmaputra.