DC Edit | Cong Has A Real Shot In Punjab

As Punjab heads for the polls early next year, the political scenario is becoming increasingly competitive. The ruling Aam Aadmi Party, the Congress and an increasingly ambitious BJP have begun preparing themselves. This could well become a closely fought contest, and the party that puts its house in order first could gain a decisive advantage.

Sachin Pilot’s appointment as Congress general secretary in-charge of Punjab added another dimension to the battle for Punjab. The Congress, which remains a formidable force in the state, however, is ridden with factionalism. With state Congress leaders, particularly former chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi and state Congress president Amrinder Singh Raja Warring locked in a bitter power struggle, Mr Pilot might just have been called in to face one of his most difficult assignments. He is expected to douse the fires and make the Congress battle-ready. Before Mr Pilot can chalk out a plan to defeat AAP, he has to defend his own bastion. And that’s easier said than done.

Another Rajasthan leader, Satish Poonia, has been made in-charge of the state by an ambitious BJP. If Mr Pilot has been sent to put the Congress’ house in order, Mr Poonia’s assignment is to turn the comparatively weak BJP into a credible fighting force. It’s a daunting task because the BJP’s problem in Punjab is not merely the vote share, but the party’s electoral base itself which remains too narrow to dream of any kind of a breakthrough. Moreover, there is an absence of a social and organisational base that can convert votes into seats. In short, the BJP does not yet have a state-wide political constituency. And BJP wants Mr Poonia to lead the charge in this mission impossible. And even as the BJP flexes its limited political muscle and threatens to go it alone, the party would struggle to make a serious electoral mark without the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).

For AAP, which swept to power in 2022, the main hurdle is the burden of incumbency. The party has also lost its freshness and a widening gap between its promise and delivery has given the Opposition ammunition. If Mr Pilot can contain the simmering differences and factionalism within the party, the Congress has the capacity of breasting the tape. Bringing in former CM Captain Amarinder Singh after getting him to exit the BJP might provide a way forward, if backchannel efforts succeed. For, despite being an octogenarian, he remains the tallest and most charismatic leader in the state.

The Congress, thus, with its deep grassroots network and leaders across Malwa, Majha and Doaba has a fighting chance to return to power. History shows that the party won Punjab in 1992, 2002 and 2017 despite factionalism. Of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab, the Congress had won seven indicating the party’s base has not yet disappeared. And the Akalis’ decline, AAP’s vulnerability, and the Congress’ ability to combine Jat Sikh, Dalit and urban Hindu votes could put the party ahead in the race. But again, for it, the danger comes from within. It badly needs to take a lesson from the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections. Then, even though the party had everything going for it, it squandered a winnable election because of internal feuding. It was not the BJP’s campaign or electoral strategy that defeated it as much as the raging Bhupinder Singh Hooda-Selja Kumari feud. The lesson here being, do not fight the CM battle, before winning the election.