Wasbir Hussain | Is Delhi looking at a new neighbourhood via N-E?

Northeast India, if one looks at the map, has Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and China as neighbours. Of these, Bhutan is a traditional ally, China an arch-rival, Nepal a friendly, yet complex neighbour, Myanmar has mixed loyalties between New Delhi and Beijing and Bangladesh has turned out to be hostile towards India after the fall of Sheikh Hasina.

If one is to measure the importance of these neighbours vis-a-vis the eight landlocked northeastern Indian states, two nations come at the top — Bangladesh and Myanmar. This is because Bangladesh and Myanmar can provide Northeast India access to the sea through ports in the vicinity like Chittagong and Mongla (in Bangladesh) and Sittwe (in Myanmar’s Rakhine state). Moreover, Myanmar is India’s land bridge to Southeast Asia as it is the only Asean nation that shares a land border with our country.

The question now is with the ad hoc government in Dhaka led by economist Mohammed Yunus training his guns against India, even going to the extent of inviting the Pakistani Army to train Bangladeshi soldiers, and the continuing instability in Myanmar with the junta being pushed to the wall in large parts by the pro-democracy resistance forces, will India’s Act Policy take a hit. An unstable Myanmar will certainly affect the Asian Highway and Asian Railway projects, and an unfriendly Bangladesh will affect communication through the waterways.

Of late, New Delhi is seen lending its weight behind mega investment and trade initiatives being launched by Assam, the most populated state in the Northeast, and its immediate neighbour Bhutan. Under the leadership of its visionary King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, Bhutan is going full steam to build a mega city called the Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) at Gelephu, on the border with Assam. The Gelephu International Airport, a six-hour drive from Guwahati, is coming up at a cost of $500 million (Phase I) and is positioned to connect with all the major Southeast Asian nations. The Government of India is building a railway line connecting Assam to Bhutan’s Gelephu, a distance of about 60 km, at a cost of Rs 3,500 crores.

Last fortnight (February 25-26), Assam held a mega Advantage Assam 2.0 Investment and Infrastructure Summit in Guwahati that attracted investments totalling a whopping Rs 4.91 lakh crores. From Mukesh Ambani to Gautam Adani, Tata Sons chairman N. Chandrasekaran to Anil Agarwal of the Vedanta Group and Sajjan Jindal, India Inc not only attended the Advantage Assam Summit in strength but made public announcements of their investment plans spanning the next five years.

That the Narendra Modi government gave its full backing to this mega initiative by Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was indicated by the fact that the Prime Minister spent two days in the state, addressing the investors, foreign diplomats and government representatives. External affairs minister S. Jaishankar himself led a 67-member diplomatic corps delegation from New Delhi to the summit in Guwahati, flying into Assam in a special aircraft. The summit had nine partner countries, including Japan, Australia, Germany, Britain, Bhutan, Malaysia and Singapore.

With the Tata Group setting up a Rs 27,000-crore semi-conductor plant near Guwahati, Assam has received global attention. After all, chips which will be produced at the Assam semi-conductor facility will be purchased by global entities like Tesla and so on. So, is India eyeing trade and investment from the Southeast Asian tiger economies with Guwahati as the hub? This is possible because most of the Southeast Asian capitals are within a three-hour flying distance from Guw-ahati. Incidentally, the fast-developing Guwahati International Airport is run by the Adani Group.

Despite many who may dismiss it as farfetched, it is possible to look at a new neighbourhood other than Bangladesh and Myanmar. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said at the Guwahati summit that he has become the “brand ambassador of the Northeast”, given that he visits the region frequently and has paid more than 70 visits during the past 11 years. The Centre under Mr Modi is working to change the identity of the Northeast as a peripheral region of the country to that of a core.

Therefore, now that we have an unpredictable government in Dhaka and a beleaguered junta regime in Myanmar that China is trying to bring under its clutches, it is important for New Delhi to look at Southeast Asia bypassing Bangladesh and Myanmar. This is necessary to ensure the success of the “Act East” policy and towards this end, air connectivity and the proximity of the Northeast to the Southeast Asian capitals will come in handy.

The Advantage Assam 2.0 has laid the foundation at home for Assam to emerge as the hub of activity. Mukesh Ambani has announced a Rs 50,000-crore investment in the field of Digital Transformation and AI Readiness, clean and green energy and retail expansion and hospitality. On his part, Gautam Adani has also announced investment of Rs 50,000 crores in expanding the Guwahati Airport and building an aerocity and in sectors such as defence manufacturing, cement and road projects. Anil Agarwal of Vedanta, too, has made an announcement about a Rs 50,000-crore investment in Assam.

Can India and Bhutan complement each other and make South Bhutan and Northeast India a new economic hub in Southeast Asia? Prime Minister Modi was among the first world leaders whom King Wangchuck sounded out on the idea of setting up the Gelephu Mindfulness City to be spread over a 2,600 sq km stretch, more than three times the size of Singapore. And, Prime Minister Modi gave King Wangchuck the assurance of India’s full support to this game-changer initiative by Bhutan.

It will be a win-win situation for India and Bhutan when the Gelephu City project is completed. As Assam CM Himanta Sarma said after a four-day visit to Bhutan in December last year: “We do not want to compete with Bhutan on the Gelephu Mindfulness City, we want to play a complementary role by facilitating an infrastructure buildup on our side of the border and providing them logistic support.” With the buzz around Assam gaining traction after the Tata semi-conductor plant and the just-concluded Advantage Assam 2.0 and countries like Australia already withdrawing its travel advisory to its nationals against visiting the state, a new climate of entrepreneurship has gripped the area.

Is it possible Southern Bhutan and Western Assam can play a big role in leapfrogging this landlocked region and emerge as a new Southeast Asian business hotspot? The answer is yes, as New Delhi may not wish to depend on the traditional access points to link its far east to the rest of the world.

Wasbir Hussain, author and political commentator, is editor-in-chief of Northeast Live, Northeast India’s only satellite English and Hindi news channel. The views expressed here are personal.