US-China Thaw: Pomp, Pander; India Frozen Out

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Washington summit with US President Donald Trump, on September 24-25, elicited global interest. Having prematurely left the Brics summit in India, weeks earlier, the state of President Xi’s health was widely debated. That his wife firmly held his left hand, as he descended from the plane, confirmed some health issues.

President Trump, on the other hand, broke protocol to both receive him at the Joint Base Andrews and arrange a red-carpet reception with an air force flyover. No US President had greeted a foreign dignitary at the airport for 64 years. He had termed his previous summit in China as a G-2 encounter, implying they were the two premier powers globally. Although they are the top two global economies, with multiple rising powers, geopolitics goes beyond them.

India has always dreaded such a formulation as it relegates rising powers like itself into a lower stratum. This deviates from the past US handling of China, especially since the 2007 creation of the Quad, having India, Australia, Japan and the US as members. The clear though unstated objective of that group was China containment. President Trump during his first presidential term (2016-20) adopted a more muscular and competitive approach towards China, in line with the Quad objectives. India assumed that closer engagement with the US reflected the US seeing India as vital for balancing China’s rise. Especially in play was China’s aggressive regional posturing, across the East and South China seas, impacting US allies like Japan and Republic of Korea etc.

President Trump’s second term has brought disruptive global policies including weaponised tariffs, mishandling of old alliances like Nato, pampering Russia and China and the irrational backing of Israel, including a joint attack on Iran, etc. Despite his pre-election boasting about ending the Ukraine war in days and hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin, he failed to mediate a ceasefire and a peace deal. In fact, he triggered global energy disruption by joining Israel in its February 28 Iran attack, killing their Supreme Leader and misreading Iranian resilience.

Consequently, President Trump has seen his domestic popularity plunge to 32 per cent, five weeks before crucial midterm elections. Thus, hosting and pandering to the Chinese President was as much to salvage his domestic standing as to discuss bilateral and international issues.

The US agenda covered obtaining more rare earth minerals from China, and having China buy more US agricultural goods, to appease the US farmers before the midterms. The US also wanted to discuss the Chinese trade and energy supply relationship with Iran, besides urging them to push Iran to accept a peace deal. Also on the table was the fate of the trade truce, worked out in Korea last year, valid till November 10. Lingering over the discussion was the US Congress’ approval of up to 100 per cent tariffs by the US President on countries buying Russian oil. China happens to be the top importer, with India next.

China had a similarly self-serving agenda, despite President Xi’s call to discuss “progress of humanity”. Primarily China sought to project having attained parity with the US globally. President Xi is apparently seeking a fourth term during the Chinese Communist Congress next year. Although he has no rivals, an elevated global stature would facilitate his move. China also planned to discuss Taiwan and press the US to delink from the Taiwanese demand for independence. Although the US publicly disagrees with that demand, it has never formally debunked it. China also proposed inviting 100,000 American students as well as supplying two pandas to a zoo in Atlanta, Georgia.

Both sides agreed to discuss the future of artificial intelligence or AI. There is consensus that the summit was more about pomp and show than tangible achievements or path to future relations. President Trump called President Xi “strong, vibrant and fit”. Beyond the agenda items, the US side provided eye-catching protocol, with President Trump hosting, besides the traditional banquet on September 24, private tea. He also escorted his Chinese guest during his National Archives visit. One tangible success was the extension of the trade-truce by two months, now up to January 10, 2027, though China sought a two-year extension. China is naturally concerned about the US imposing punitive tariffs for buying Russian oil. China had meanwhile threatened to restrict exports of new rare-earth items like erbium, needed for fibre optics cables.

As the two leading powers in developing AI, its discussion was inevitable. China perceives US raising AI’s potential risks as a ploy to restrain China from achieving parity. The debate in the US has been stirred by some top executives resigning over dangers of uncontrolled AI development. Dario Amodei, chief executive of Anthropic, has sought global slowdown, curtailed chip-making sales to China, pointing out “distillation” of data from US products and remote data centre access. There have been growing instances of AI agents escaping the “sandboxes”.

China announced its first national AI Plan in 2017. Now China’s DeepSeek rivals American Silicon Valley entities. President Xi had termed AI as China’s “lead goose” for future economic revolution. China already has two million robots operating in its factories. However, no concrete outcome emerged on the regulation of AI development. Although both agreed to rebrand AI as “Super Intelligence”.

The Chinese foreign ministry’s statement seeks turning vision into action and making cooperation the mainstay of bilateral relations, rather than competition. If “differences are managed” it opines, not only bilaterally but “countries around the world” will benefit. In conclusion, “constructive China-US relations of strategic stability” are sought. Also proposed is that AI should be “kept under human control” and its misuse jointly prevented. Rather than a multilateral approach to this sensitive issue, a duopoly has emerged.

However, remaining unaddressed were contentious issues like trade imbalances, technology restrictions and Taiwan. The US’s delayed arms transfer to Taiwan worth $14 billion conveys altering US priorities. The two leaders are scheduled to meet soon again at the summits of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) in November and the Trump-hosted G20 in December.

India can only hope that Republican rout in November midterms and weaknesses in the Chinese economy will dampen the new G-2 construct. Meanwhile, with growing domestic issues and global uncertainties, the Indian government requires recalibrated domestic and foreign policies.