Syed Ata Hasnain | Amid Geopolitical Fatigue, A Strategic Reset For India

The global landscape which has entered 2026 appears shaped by three corrosive forces -- fatigue, uncertainty and recalibration. Since the Covid-19 pandemic years of 2020-21, international politics has functioned in a state of permanent crisis management. Wars have dragged on without resolution, institutions have weakened, and strategic patience has worn thin. For India, this moment marks the end of a relatively benign external environment and the beginning of a far more demanding phase of statecraft.

The early years of the current decade offered India strong geopolitical tailwinds. Most Western capitals, particularly Washington and Brussels, viewed India as a natural strategic partner in balancing a rising China. That alignment provided diplomatic space, technology access and political support.

By 2025, however, those winds had shifted decisively. India now faces persistent headwinds -- economic, strategic and diplomatic -- that demand a sober reassessment of its global posture. Fatigue and uncertainty in a fractured world: The international system today is afflicted by what can only be described as conflict fatigue. The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war has exhausted Western attention, strained European economies, and distorted global energy and food markets. Simultaneously, sustained instability in West Asia -- exacerbated since 2023 -- has hollowed out diplomatic bandwidth and injected volatility into critical maritime corridors.

In this environment, uncertainty has become the defining condition. Great powers remain active, but not decisive. Alliances exist, but lack coherence. Rules endure in theory, yet are selectively applied in practice. For a country like India --deeply integrated into global trade, energy flows and technology ecosystems -- this disorder is no longer just an abstraction. It is a daily economic and strategic reality.

Conflict zones and consequences for India

The major theatres of global conflict now function as structural disruptions rather than episodic crises. Eastern Europe continues in a bitter stalemate, while West Asia has evolved into a complex shadow war involving states, proxies and non-state actors. Temporarily on halt, these conflicts are no longer geographically contained; the uncertainty ripples through insurance markets, shipping lanes and supply chains. The consequences are tangible in our case. Disruptions along the Red Sea and Persian Gulf have raised freight and insurance costs for India’s trade. The uncertainty over connectivity projects, including segments linked to the International North-South Transport Corridor, has complicated export ambitions. These pressures underline a larger truth -- India’s economic trajectory is increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical instability far beyond its immediate neighbourhood.

India-US relations -- Recalibration, not rupture

Perhaps the most closely watched shift of the past eighteen months has been the cooling of India’s relations with the United States. The partnership remains significant, but its tone has changed. Washington’s renewed emphasis on transactional approach -- visible in tighter trade policies, selective technology controls, sharper immigration norms -- has introduced friction into what was once portrayed as a near-automatic convergence.

India, for its part, has resisted pressures to narrow its strategic choices. Its refusal to sever defence ties with Russia or mirror Western sanctions reflects continuity rather than defiance. This is neither a rupture, nor is it a temporary irritation. It is more a recalibration toward a mature, interest-based relationship -- one where cooperation continues, but the expectations are moderated on both sides. Tariffs need not always dictate the relationship. Strategic autonomy in a constrained world: One of the most consequential developments of 2026 is India’s recognition that technological dependence can translate into strategic vulnerability. Access to advanced chips, artificial intelligence, and digital systems now comes with political and regulatory strings attached. India’s response has been neither isolation nor alignment, but diversification. The expansion of its Digital Public Infrastructure -- covering payments, identity and governance -- has emerged as a globally credible alternative model. By exporting such digital systems to the Global South, India is carving out technological relevance without surrendering its sovereignty.

Economically too, India is spreading to manage its risks. Instead of depending on one country or one region, it is widening its trade links to Europe, the Gulf region and parts of the Indo-Pacific.  Free trade agreements are now about reducing dependence, not just increasing trade. A reconfigured Middle East: West Asia today bears little resemblance to the more ordere d environment of a decade ago. Old alignments are loosening, new partnerships are forming, and regional competition has sharpened. For India, the Middle East is no longer only an energy source or an expatriate destination; it is now a key arena for maritime security, infrastructure investment and diplomacy.

The pace of change is fast and often volatile, making India’s balancing task more demanding. We must maintain strong economic and security ties with key Gulf partners such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, while safeguarding strategic projects like Chabahar in Iran. At the same time, India must manage evolving equations involving Israel, Turkey and Qatar, without letting any single relationship narrow its options. 

Emerging groupings, including ideas such as an “Islamic Nato” and a Mediterranean Quad, add complexity and demand constant calibration. Positioning India in 2026-2030: Looking ahead, India’s strategy must focus not on becoming a pole in a multipolar world, but on being indispensable across divides. Economic resilience is the starting point. Strategic autonomy cannot endure unless India remains competitive in manufacturing, logistics and critical technologies. Multilateral flexibility will remain important. Platforms such as the G-20 and the expanded Brics give India space to steer global attention toward development, debt relief and institutional reform, rather than ideological rivalry. The security diversification must continue. The United States will remain a key partner for advanced defence cooperation, but indigenous capability and diversified sourcing are essential to ensure that India’s military preparedness is never subject to external pressure.

Diplomatic patience may prove to be India’s greatest asset. In a fatigued world, the ability to wait, hedge and engage selectively is more effective than rushed alignment. The headwinds that intensified in 2025 have not weakened India; but the era of easy convergence has passed. What lies ahead will demand greater effort, and also greater realism. No doubt India has displayed great maturity in handling setbacks.

As India sets its sights on 2047 as a national milestone, there is one important caution. Progress must be steady, not hurried. Quick successes sometimes carry hidden strategic costs that are revealed only years later. India’s strength has always been its capacity for measured judgment -- and that must continue to guide its rise.

The writer, a retired lieutenant-general, is a former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 (“Chinar”) Corps