Skand Tayal | Japan’s Ties With China Worsening Amid Flareup on Taiwan Remarks

Within one month of assuming office, Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi faces a sharp dip in Japan-China relations provoked by her November 7 remarks hinting that any Chinese military action against Taiwan could lead to a Japanese military response. Ms Takaichi said: “If there are battleships and the use of force… it could constitute a survival-threatening situation”.

Under Japan’s 2015 security laws a “survival-threatening situation” refers to a situation when an armed attack on Japan’s allies presents an “existential threat” to Japan. In such an event, Japan’s “Self-Defence Forces” can be mobilised.

In a stern “wolf-warrior” response, China’s consul-general in Osaka threatened on X to “cut off that dirty neck”, in an apparent response to the Japanese PM.

China’s embassy in Tokyo issued a statement that China was “willing to make every effort to strive for the peaceful reunification of both sides of the Taiwan Straits”, but will “never promise to renounce the use of force”. China also issued an advisory to its tourists and 100,000 students in Japan to be cautious and reconsider their travel plans.

China’s Global Times has sent a clear, stark message to the Japanese leadership, warning: “If Japan dares to interfere in China’s reunification cause, or dares to attempt an armed intervention in the cross-straits situation under the pretext of a ‘survival-threatening situation’ , it would be an act of aggression and definitely meet a firm response from China.” Responding to the strong criticism by Beijing, Ms Takaichi said she would refrain from similar comments in future.

This spurt in tensions between Japan and its largest trading partner, China, comes amid political uncertainty and economic stress in Japan. Recent data showed Japan’s economy shrank by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter, indicating an annual projected decline of 1.8 per cent in GDP. Chinese tourists make a significant contribution to Japan’s service industry and retail sales. After the recent advisory, major Chinese agencies halted sales for Japan tours and allowed customers to cancel or change flights free of charge.

In a bid for damage control, Tokyo said that discouraging personal exchanges such as for tourism and studies was “completely contradicting an agreement” between the Japanese PM and President Xi Jinping at their first meeting in Gyeongju on October 31, on the Apec summit sidelines, for a “strategic and mutually beneficial relationship” as well as “constructive and stable ties.”

To calm the waters the director-general of the Japanese foreign ministry’s Asian and Oceanic Affairs Bureau visited Beijing on November 17. The meetings did not resolve the issue as China banned Japanese seafood imports. On November 20, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman stated that Japan “should retract its erroneous remarks and take concrete actions to safeguard the political foundation of China-Japan relations; otherwise, China will have no choice but to take further measures”.

It may be recalled that Article 9 of the US occupation forces’ drafted Constitution imposed in 1947 on a defeated Japan said: “The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” Its interpretation and practice has evolved since then. In the wake of the Communist takeover of China and the Korean War, the 75,000-strong National Police Reserve was converted in 1954 as “Japan Self-Defence Forces” (SDF). The 2015 legislation introduced the concept of “other crises of Japan’s survival”, in addition to the existing categories of an “armed attack against Japan” and “anticipated armed attack against Japan” as a situation that may trigger Japan’s use of force. This reinterpretation allows Japan to exercise the right of “collective self-defence” and to engage in military action.

In May 2017, the then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had set a 2020 timeline for revising Article 9, which would legitimise the SDF in the Constitution. However, he retired due to health problems and was tragically assassinated in July 2022.

Since 1967, Japan has followed “Three Non-Nuclear Principles” of not possessing, not producing and not allowing introduction of nuclear weapons in Japanese territory. On November 12, during a debate in the Diet, Prime Minister Takaichi said that Japan’s security policy would be revised by the end of 2026 and she could not “definitively state” that the wording of these principles will remain the same. This ambiguous statement was criticised by pacifists within Japan and outsiders, particularly in the Chinese media.

In her long political career, Ms Takaichi was extremely close to the worldview of late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and was a vocal critic of China’s military buildup. She has visited Taiwan in the past and met Taiwan’s representative at the recent Apec summit in South Korea.

China is Japan’s largest trading partner, with a turnover of $293 billion in 2024.There is a degree of interdependence in their economy and trade. But on balance, Japan is more exposed to Chinese pressure on export of rare earths, industrial magnets, tourists and import of consumer and industrial products.

On November 21, China sent a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres criticising the Japanese PM’s remarks as a “grave violation of international law”. On November 23, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi termed the remarks as “shocking” and said that they had “crossed a red line”.

Meanwhile, Japan's decision to station surface-to-air missiles on its southwestern islands -- about 110 km from Taiwan -- was criticised by China as an “extremely dangerous step”.

Amidst the escalating tensions, the United States reaffirmed its commitment to the security alliance with Japan.

In 2024, China spent an estimated $314 billion on defence, compared to Japan’s expenditure of $55 billion. The unpredictable and constantly changing power balance in the Indo-Pacific region will need to be factored in by the Japanese leadership in determining their policy towards China and Taiwan.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat