SANJAYOVACHA | The Aspirational Middle Class: Portents Of Revolt | Sanjaya Baru

Among the many interesting slogans coined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to define the “New India” of an aspirational middle class that he sought as his support base, the one least referred to these days is: “Hawaii chappal se hawai jahaz tak”. It was an evocative slogan. Even though few these days, like Mamata Banerjee, actually wear Hawaii chappals, the idea that Prime Minister Modi’s policies would enable that class to travel by air appealed to a lot.

It is not just because air travel has now become very expensive, thanks to the Gulf war, that one does not hear this reassuring promise any more. The fact is that the process of development over the past decade has also nipped many such aspirations in the bud.

One of the most important instruments available to the middle class to make the transition from Hawaii chappals to air travel was education and the access to employment it provided. Bereft of a plot of land or any other capital, the middle class hope has always been to seek an improvement in one’s standard of living through education. If selling a piece of land was needed to fund education, so be it. One asset, it was hoped, was being converted into another. Land for education and the steady flow of income through employment.

Since the State had by and large failed to provide free education of any quality, the aspirational middle classes were forced to turn to increasingly expensive privately provided education. they still kept faith in the possibility of economic empowerment and social advancement through education. Every upper class household has stories of how the maid’s children or the driver’s kids are studying at an “English medium private school”. More than half a household’s income would go into paying school fees.

It is precisely for all these reasons that an expose on corruption and incompetence in the organisation of a nationwide evaluation system, National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (Neet), has once again woken up large sections of the middle class to the rot in the system. For a decade they have been satisfied by the construction of grand temples, the execution of military victories, the campaigns against beef, demonisation of minorities and staged events overseas suggesting a rising global profile for “New India”.

They assumed that the fortune of the overseas Indians staging dances around a visiting Prime Minister would one day visit upon their children, if only they studied hard enough. Even the Prime Minister urged their children to become “exam warriors”. Few felt that emigration from India was a vote against the motherland. It was sold as a campaign to make India a global power. If one studied harder, one could join the diaspora. The bigger and wealthier the diaspora, the greater India’s soft power and global standing.

An expose by an intelligent 17-year-old and anger against the highest judicial authority in the country calling struggling youth “cockroaches” has woken up this middle class. In some ways, this is akin to the “India Against Corruption” campaign of 2012-14. At that time an as-yet inadequately substantiated charge of humungous corruption turned the middle class against the Manmohan Singh government.

In 2009, the middle class extended support to the Manmohan government, withdrawing support from the BJP, because Dr Singh was a middle-class hero. A self-made leader who had risen to the highest office in the country by investing in education. If you study hard like Manmohan Singh did, parents would tell their children, then you can also become the Prime Minister of India! Education was the key to empowerment.

When that middle class felt betrayed by the corruption over which Prime Minister Singh presided, even if he was personally honest, they revolted. They turned to another “self-made” political leader, even if his rise was not through education. The Hindu middle class became a Hindutva middle class and voted thrice to empower their leader who promised “Achche Din” and air travel.

One does not know how the youth anger triggered by the Neet scam and their mocking as “cockroaches” will eventually turn. Too much is at stake for the current ruling side for it to give up power all too easily. Compare the manner in which Prime Minister Singh secured the resignation of communications minister A. Raja and the stubborn manner in which the present Union education minister refuses to step down.

In 2012-13, there was an attempt from within his own party to pin all blame on Manmohan Singh and get him to either step down or move home to Rashtrapati Bhavan. He chose to stay put. This time around no one in the ruling party will even dare suggest a minister should step down, leave alone the Prime Minister. How this middle-class youth anger will manifest itself and impact national politics remains to be seen. What it has certainly done is wake up an ideologically immunised middle class, content in their religious majoritarianism.

A second difference between 2012 and 2026 is the state of the economy. In 2012 the economy was still performing well. The subsequent slowdown that pushed the Indian economy into the ranks of the so-called “fragile five” had not yet spoilt the growth story of 2003-12. Inflation was an issue but employment was rising and India was still viewed as a potential competitor to China. Investment was still flowing into the country and India could still proudly claim to be the “world’s fastest growing market economy”.

The context in 2026 is very different. The Neet scam and the anger of the “cockroaches” come on top of stagnating employment opportunities, an economic slowdown and rising prices. The urban mood is certainly sullen. Unless the government shows greater sensitivity, and responds to this anger, support within its own political base could get rocky for the Narendra Modi government.

There is speculation about a reshuffle of the Union Cabinet. A mere reshuffle will do little. There has to be a rolling of big heads. However, given the style of functioning of the present regime, the fact is that all bucks finally stop at the top. No one imagines there would be a change of leadership. If Manmohan Singh stuck on till the last day, why should Narendra Modi surrender before that? However, the PM’s style of functioning will have to change.

Sanjaya Baru is a Distinguished Fellow, United Service Institution of India and Takshashila Institution