Kamal Davar | Early Takeaways for India From the Disruption Due to West Asia War

The totally unwarranted and directionless war in West Asia that began on February 28 with the US and Israel launching massive missile, drone and aerial attacks on Israel’s sworn enemy, Iran, even while negotiations between the US and Iran were on in Geneva, have completely disrupted the global energy situation.

Now having completed its third month, the West Asia war has now degenerated into an operational quagmire, amid distinct geopolitical churning. Iran too, in its counter-strike against the US-Israel aerial/missile offensive, surprised all by targeting US bases wherever they were located in the Gulf region, destroying important military and even energy infrastructure located in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The GCC nations have realised that the so-called security umbrella of the US in their respective nations is less than wholly effective.

With Iran shutting down the shipment of energy supplies from the Gulf across the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman and thence towards the Arabian Sea has caused an unprecedented energy supplies crisis for many nations, including India. The US too has imposed a counter-blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to ensure Iran does not extract tolls from ships transiting through this strategic maritime choke point. This worst impasse in energy supply in recent history, meanwhile, continues to cause grave hardship to oil and gas importing countries. When this meaningless confrontation will end is anyone’s guess?

All conflicts, kinetic and non-kinetic, give birth to many lessons to be analysed and arrived at for future implementation. The current continuing West Asian war lends itself to many takeaways for all nations. India too will be analysing this war in detail for it to study and implement for its future well-being. With no immediate truce in the West Asia war in sight, India is finding its strategic balancing act in the region, and among its friends on both sides of the fence, increasingly difficult.

It is more than clear that serious and even prolonged kinetic conflicts can occur without much notice or even any valid reason!

Thus, security preparedness has to be a 24/7 endeavour, and problems regarding any resource crunches or identification of the nation’s defence requirements should be a top priority, to be addressed by the powers-that-be on a timely basis, and with vision, professionalism and alacrity. Adequate financial reserves should always be earmarked in the Union Budget for unforeseen contingencies stemming from national emergencies.

The West Asia war has brought out, as never before, the utter vulnerability of all nations which are grossly dependent on oil and gas producing countries for their energy requirements. India, like China, is hugely reliant on West Asian oil and gas and disruptions in the supply chain, like the current blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or similar maritime choke points in other areas, will not only be of grave security concerns but adversely affect the day-to-day life of ordinary citizens as well. West Asia currently supplies over 50% of India’s crude oil imports, 60% of natural gas imports and about 90% of LPG imports. With crude oil touching around $110 per barrel, inflation has hit the Indian economy hard, with the rupee also plunging in relation to the US dollar. India therefore has no option but to diversify its sources for its energy requirements and also to seek energy alternatives, including domestic renewables, and endeavouring to look for indigenous sources of supply in areas which have not yet been fully explored. The strategic reserves of oil and gas, in peacetime, should be expanded to 120 days from the current 60-day period. Of course, the security of this strategic reserve must be ensured by various means available, including in deep underground tanks and pipelines and widely dispersed.

Nearly 10 million Indians work in the Gulf region and remit approximately $50 billion back to India annually. The safety and jobs of these workers and of nearly 38% of India’s global remittance inflows has to be protected by serious diplomatic outreach to the Gulf nations.

With asymmetric warfare gaining rapid, credible significance, even militarily powerful nations and their critical military assets are vulnerable to non-contact warfare and missiles as well as drones with large stand-off ranges. Air defence shields will have to cater for much longer and effective interception than earlier. Relatively inexpensive drones and other weapons can now be fielded in much larger numbers than the earlier very expensive missiles with virtually the same lethal effects. Thus, India will have to critically re-examine its weaponisation programmes to also include weapons, platforms and equipment which have proven their worth in the ongoing West Asia war, the Russia-Ukraine and Gaza conflicts.

India’s massive non-oil exports and vital fertiliser imports have been critically affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. By seeking longer alternative routes with their added costs and burgeoning insurance premiums, the financial effects adversely burden India’s economy. An answer needs to be sought to keep India’s maritime trade competitive and profitable.

One of the significant takeaways for India is to ensure its strict adherence to its policy of “strategic autonomy”. India has to ensure friendly relations with warring nations like Iran, Israel, the United States and the Gulf sheikhdoms, all together. Each nation has its own significance for India, and thus genuine neutrality coupled with a fair and even a moral approach on issues which divide them and have led to this war will be ideal for India.

History displays a propensity for repeating itself and it will be in India’s interest to carefully analyse the economic, political, social, technological and military lessons which emerge from this long-drawn West Asian conflict and adapt them suitably for the Indian ecosystem.

The writer, a retired lieutenant-general, was the first head of India’s Defence Intelligence Agency, and is a strategic analyst