John J. Kennedy | How To Turn ‘Wall’ Over America’s Student Visas Into India’s Advantage

For decades, an American student visa symbolised entry into an aspirational world of ideas, opportunity and mobility. For middle-class families across India, China and much of Asia and the Global South, the passport stamp promised their children access to the global commons of research, networks and careers. That promise is now fraying.

According to Statista Consumer Insights data released in September 2025, the first half of fiscal 2025 saw a 14.7 per cent decline in F-1 student visas. The fall has been uneven: India suffered a staggering 43.5 per cent decline, while China saw a 24.1 per cent drop. These figures indicate a new phase in America’s relationship with international students; one increasingly defined by suspicion rather than partnership.

Several Indian students have recently had their US visa applications rejected, despite meeting all academic and financial requirements. The rejections, often citing “insufficient ties to India”, have coincided with Washington’s expanded social media screening and digital vetting procedures, which now require applicants to share all public handles. Many, including students like Kaushik Raj, suspect that posts critical of India’s treatment of minorities or US foreign policy triggered their rejection. Some who had voiced support for pro-Palestine protests were even deported or had visas revoked for alleged “activities counter to US national interests”.

Three other Indian students interviewed by the Washington Post shared similar experiences. The result is a growing fear that free expression online can now jeopardise educational mobility. A Facebook post, a retweet, or a meme can now be treated as evidence of “hostility”. A critical essay, a satirical joke, or even loose links to activism can derail years of preparation. For Indian and Chinese students, the largest contributors to America’s STEM pipelines, the message is clear: suppress dissent or stay away. The demand undermines American universities’ core ideals of intellectual freedom and debate, replacing them with silence and conformity.

The implications are far-reaching. International students have long been vital for American higher education. They make up nearly 40 per cent of all graduate enrolments in STEM and exceed 70 per cent in some doctoral programmes. Indian students alone number around 270,000, while Chinese students contribute another 300,000. In 2023, their presence added an estimated $38 billion to the US economy and supported 335,000 domestic jobs. Restricting these inflows cuts directly into the vitality of US universities. Studies show that a 10 per cent increase in foreign graduate students boosts patent activity by about 5-7 per cent; fewer students result in slower innovation. Already, smaller public universities are reporting budget shortfalls as applications decline.

Many nations are now strategically positioning themselves to capitalise on this shift. Canada issued a record 551,000 new study permits in 2023, leveraging streamlined pathways to permanent residency. Britain has overtaken the US as the leading destination for Chinese students, while Germany and the Netherlands are rapidly expanding English-medium programmes. Australia, long overshadowed, has rebounded with simpler visa procedures. Even China has entered the competition, launching its “K visa” to attract global students and researchers by offering clear residency pathways and world-class labs. These nations have recognised that attracting young talent is not charity, but an investment in economic and intellectual power. By contrast, America risks weakening its competitiveness in vital fields, such as AI, biotechnology and quantum computing, which rely on global collaboration.

For India, this moment is not merely about watching America stumble. US education has historically seeded India’s entrepreneurial and scientific ecosystems, bolstering the IT boom and sustaining knowledge economies. Alumni returning from American campuses brought technical expertise, networks and credibility that fuelled Indian start-ups and research centres. A steep decline in student mobility now threatens to break these cycles, constraining opportunities for the next generation.

However, it is in this context that India must resist a purely reactive stance. India cannot simply lament America’s retreat from openness; it must seize this moment, as other nations have, to rethink its higher education strategy. Three priorities are urgent.

First, India must strengthen its own universities, particularly public ones. Quality cannot remain the preserve of a handful of IITs or IIMs. If the US is narrowing access, India should expand it through investments in research infrastructure, faculty development and international accreditation. The National Education Policy’s vision of globalised campuses will remain aspirational unless backed by sustained funding and autonomy.

Second, India must diversify partnerships. Europe and East Asia are actively seeking global talent, and India should negotiate deeper, rights-based arrangements with them, such as joint degree programmes, simplified credit transfers, and transparent visa regimes. Bilateral education pacts, modelled after trade agreements, could provide Indian students with a more predictable pathway while attracting foreign faculty and researchers to Indian campuses.

Third, India must invest in creating its own hub for global talent. If knowledge is the new currency of power, attracting students from Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America should be part of India’s strategic play. A regional hub model, where Indian universities host centres of excellence in STEM, climate studies or public health would both internationalise Indian higher education and generate diplomatic goodwill.

For India, the way forward is to recognise that student migration is not merely about individual ambition, but about national policy choices. Washington’s choice today may be suspicion and surveillance. India’s choice should be openness, investment and self-confidence. Only then can we turn the current crisis into an opportunity -- ensuring that the next generation of Indian students does not see its horizons defined by the vagaries of American politics, but by the strength of India’s intellectual and institutional capacities.

The writer is retired professor and former dean of the School of Arts and Humanities at Christ University in Bengaluru